DOE Insights February 20, 2020

Crude Oil Stocks Build, Much Less than Expectations

The DOE reported Total Crude Oil Inventories increased by 415, 000 barrels to 442.9 million barrels for the week ending February 14, 2020, while the expectations average was for a 2.5 million barrel build.

Total hydrocarbon supplies decreased by 1 million barrels to 1,293 million barrels.

Crude Oil Production was unchanged at 3.0 million barrels per day.

Total Crude Imports decreased by 400,000 barrels per day to 6.5 million barrels per day.

Total Crude Exports increased by 594,000 barrels per day to 3.6 million barrels per day.

Total Refinery Crude Runs increased by 200,000 barrels per day to 16.21 million barrels per day.

The DOE report on crude stocks was bullish to prices and have prices have been on an extended rally for the last 10 days. Supporting prices is the decreasing number of new coronavirus cases in China easing concerns about the impact of COVID-19 on the Chinese economy. The US Treasury Department has announced imposition of sanctions on the Russian Rosneft trading operation for its dealings with Venezuela resulting in production declines in Venezuela and that will also support prices.

 

Gasoline Stocks Draw, Expectations were for a Build

Total MotorGasoline Inventories decreased by 200,000 barrels to 259.0 million barrels for the week ending February 14, 2020. The expectations average was for a .4 million barrel increase.

Implied Demand increased by 570,000 barrels per day to 10.2 million barrels per day.

Gasoline Production was up 280,00 barrels per day to 9.53 million barrels per day.

Gasoline stocks have seasonally peaked and demand has returned. The near-term conditions are bullish to RBOB prices so we expect the rally to continue.

 

Distillates Stocks Draw, Less than Expectations

Total Distillates Stocks decreased by 600,000 barrels to 140.6 million barrels for the week ending February 14, 2020, while the expectations average was for a 1.5 million barrel draw.

Total Distillates Production increased by 20,000 barrels per day 4.85 million barrels per day.

Total Distillates Implied Demand decreased by 160,000 barrels per day to 5.07 million barrels per day.

Distillate stocks are seasonally drawing, production is down, and demand is up. These are bullish factors supporting prices.

 

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Regards,
The Fundamental Analytics Team

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