{"id":3729,"date":"2018-09-05T15:43:47","date_gmt":"2018-09-05T19:43:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/?p=3729"},"modified":"2018-09-05T15:54:32","modified_gmt":"2018-09-05T19:54:32","slug":"commodity-market-update-portuguese-translation-september-5-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/commodity-market-update-portuguese-translation-september-5-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"Commodity Market Update, Portuguese Translation September 5, 2018"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Energia<\/p>\n<p>A <em>Forward Curve<\/em> do petr\u00f3leo <em>Brent<\/em> estava em <em>contango<\/em> recentemente devido a excesso de oferta de petr\u00f3leo na bahia do Atl\u00e2ntico.\u00a0 O <em>contango<\/em> tem reduzido e a <em>forward curve<\/em> est\u00e1 gradativamente se movendo rumo a <em>backwardation<\/em> devido \u00e0 redu\u00e7\u00e3o de exporta\u00e7\u00f5es do Iran e a consequente redu\u00e7\u00e3o de excessos de oferta.\u00a0 As san\u00e7\u00f5es dos EUA contra o Iran, programados para come\u00e7ar no in\u00edcio de novembro, pode reduzir a oferta em at\u00e9 1 milh\u00e3o de barris por dia de petr\u00f3leo iraniano entrando no mercado. O Gr\u00e1fico 1 mostra a <em>forward Curve<\/em> do petr\u00f3leo <em>Brent<\/em> em 27 de julho de 2018 e 31 de agosto de 2018. J\u00e1 em 27 de julho (linha vermelha),\u00a0 o <em>spread<\/em> entre o primeiro e segundo m\u00eas era de 47 centavos. Em 31 de agsto (linha preta), a frente da curva <em>Brent<\/em> havia se deslocada em $3 dolares e o <em>spread<\/em> havia ca\u00eddo para apenas 19 centavos. A <em>forward curve<\/em> da WTI (linha amarela e linha azul) havia aumentado em $2.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Gr\u00e1fico 1<\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3730\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/CMU-09052018.-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"972\" height=\"720\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/CMU-09052018.-1.png 972w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/CMU-09052018.-1-300x222.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/CMU-09052018.-1-768x569.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 972px) 100vw, 972px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Como resultado do aumento na <em>forward curve<\/em>, os <em>spread Brent-WTI<\/em> tem se fortalecido. Por exemplo, Gr\u00e1fico 2 demonstra o <em>spread<\/em> entre o petr\u00f3leo dezembro Brent \u2013 dezembro WTI. O <em>spread<\/em> de contratos (linha preta) tem aumentado em $1.40 desde o in\u00edcio de agosto. Sugerimos considerar uma posi\u00e7\u00e3o com expectativa de aumento no <em>spread<\/em> Brent-WTI tendo em vista que esse <em>spread<\/em> tem o potencial de aumentar em $2 ao longo do m\u00eas de setembro.<\/p>\n<p>Gr\u00e1fico \u00a02<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3731\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/CMU-09052018-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"972\" height=\"720\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/CMU-09052018-2.png 972w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/CMU-09052018-2-300x222.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/CMU-09052018-2-768x569.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 972px) 100vw, 972px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Graos<\/p>\n<p>O pre\u00e7o dos gr\u00e3os ca\u00edram significativamente durante o m\u00eas de agosto devido a safra recorde e os impactos das tarifas Chinesas sobre a produ\u00e7\u00e3o agr\u00edcola dos EUA. Milho de dezembro vivenciou quedas de 22 centavos (Gr\u00e1fico 3, linha preta) e soja de novembro caiu 75 centavos (gr\u00e1fico 4, linha preta) no m\u00eas de agosto. N\u00e3o h\u00e1 perspectiva de mudan\u00e7as nas condi\u00e7\u00f5es fundamentais no futuro pr\u00f3ximo, portanto recomendamos estrat\u00e9gias de mercado visando queda, tanto nos contratos futuros, quanto nos <em>spreads<\/em> dentre meses pr\u00f3ximos; por exemplo, o <em>spread<\/em> DEC-MAR de milho, ou o <em>spread <\/em>NOV-JAN de soja.<\/p>\n<p>Gr\u00e1fico 3<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3732\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/CMU-09052018-3-.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"972\" height=\"720\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/CMU-09052018-3-.png 972w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/CMU-09052018-3--300x222.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/CMU-09052018-3--768x569.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 972px) 100vw, 972px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Gr\u00e1fico 4<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3733\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/CMU-09052018-4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"972\" height=\"720\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/CMU-09052018-4.png 972w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/CMU-09052018-4-300x222.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/CMU-09052018-4-768x569.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 972px) 100vw, 972px\" \/><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Energia A Forward Curve do petr\u00f3leo Brent estava em contango recentemente devido a excesso de oferta de petr\u00f3leo na bahia do Atl\u00e2ntico.\u00a0 O contango tem reduzido e a forward curve est\u00e1 gradativamente se movendo rumo a backwardation devido \u00e0 redu\u00e7\u00e3o de exporta\u00e7\u00f5es do Iran e a consequente redu\u00e7\u00e3o de excessos de oferta.\u00a0 As san\u00e7\u00f5es dos [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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