{"id":4165,"date":"2018-11-16T12:14:42","date_gmt":"2018-11-16T17:14:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/?p=4165"},"modified":"2018-11-16T12:14:42","modified_gmt":"2018-11-16T17:14:42","slug":"commodity-market-update-portuguese-translation-november-14-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/commodity-market-update-portuguese-translation-november-14-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"Commodity Market Update, Portuguese Translation, November 14, 2018"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>Energia<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Petr\u00f3leo e G\u00e1s Natural: Um Estudo em Contrastes<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Pre\u00e7os de petr\u00f3leo entraram em colapso desde o meio de outubro, caindo de $77,00 para $58,00 (Gr\u00e1fico 1). Diversos fatores tem contribu\u00eddo para essa queda hist\u00f3rica de pre\u00e7os. Estoques de petr\u00f3leo bruto norte-americano tem aumentado ao longo das ultimas sete semanas (Gr\u00e1fico 2, linha preta). A OPEC e a R\u00fassia tem aumentado sua produ\u00e7\u00e3o de petr\u00f3leo bruto e parecem indispostos a reduzir produ\u00e7\u00e3o at\u00e9 2019. As san\u00e7\u00f5es iranianas n\u00e3o tem reduzido a oferta mundial sendo que isen\u00e7\u00f5es para a exporta\u00e7\u00e3o tem sido admitida para v\u00e1rios dos principais consumidores deles, como por exemplo a China, \u00cdndia e Jap\u00e3o. A amplitude de oferta, juntamente como fatores como redu\u00e7\u00e3o da demanda global e d\u00f3lar forte tem contribu\u00eddo para a queda no pre\u00e7o do petr\u00f3leo bruto. Sugerimos considerar uma posi\u00e7\u00e3o vendida nos contratos de petr\u00f3leo bruto, ou <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">spreads<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> de calend\u00e1rio, como tamb\u00e9m no <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">crack<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> de gasolina.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>Gr\u00e1fico 1<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-4166\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/CMU-1114-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"972\" height=\"545\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/CMU-1114-1.png 972w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/CMU-1114-1-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/CMU-1114-1-768x431.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 972px) 100vw, 972px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Gr\u00e1fico 2<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-4167\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/CMU-1114-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"972\" height=\"725\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/CMU-1114-2.png 972w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/CMU-1114-2-300x224.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/CMU-1114-2-768x573.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 972px) 100vw, 972px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Em contraste com o petr\u00f3leo bruto, os pre\u00e7os do g\u00e1s natural na \u00faltima semana aumentaram drasticamente de $3,50 para mais do que $4,00 (Gr\u00e1fico 3).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>Gr\u00e1fico 3<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-4168\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/CMU-1114-3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"972\" height=\"560\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/CMU-1114-3.png 972w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/CMU-1114-3-300x173.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/CMU-1114-3-768x442.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 972px) 100vw, 972px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Redu\u00e7\u00e3o de invent\u00e1rios e um clima mais frio do que sazonalmente esperado s\u00e3o fatores determinantes que vem contribuindo para o salto dram\u00e1tico nos pre\u00e7os. Armazenagem de g\u00e1s natural no fim da temporada de inje\u00e7\u00e3o est\u00e1 em um n\u00edvel de 3.200 bcf, sendo assim o n\u00edvel mais baixo doos \u00faltimos 12 anos (Gr\u00e1fico 3, linha preta).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>Gr\u00e1fico 4<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-4169\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/CMU-1114-4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"972\" height=\"725\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/CMU-1114-4.png 972w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/CMU-1114-4-300x224.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/CMU-1114-4-768x573.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 972px) 100vw, 972px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Um modelo de computador da Fundamental Analytics que faz previs\u00f5es de armazenamento para as sete semanas restantes do ano (Gr\u00e1fico 3, linha azul pontilhada) projeta que a armazenagem permanecer\u00e1 em n\u00edveis recordes de baixa. Caso o inverno seja mais frio que o normal, n\u00e3o seria inesperado que os pre\u00e7os atinjam o n\u00edvel de $5 ou $6.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sugerimos considerar uma posi\u00e7\u00e3o comprada de g\u00e1s natural nos <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">spreads<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> de calend\u00e1rios, ou diretamente nos contratos.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Gr\u00e3os<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">O relat\u00f3rio WASDE da USDA de novembro foi lan\u00e7ado na quinta-feira passada. Em rela\u00e7\u00e3o ao milho, o relat\u00f3rio de novembro apresentou a produtividade de 178,9 bu por acre, enquanto a expectativa m\u00e9dia para esse relat\u00f3rio era de 180,0 bushels por acre. A produ\u00e7\u00e3o relatada na edi\u00e7\u00e3o de novembro era de 14,63 enquanto o esperado era de 14,72 bushels (Gr\u00e1fico 6, 2018). Estoques finais de milho no relat\u00f3rio de novembro constaram o valor de 1, 736 bilh\u00f5es de bushels (Gr\u00e1fico 7, 2018) j\u00e1 a estimativa m\u00e9dia era de 1,77 bilh\u00f5es de bushels. Todos os n\u00fameros relatados foram aqu\u00e9m das expectativas, o que tipicamente traz sustenta\u00e7\u00e3o de pre\u00e7os.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Os pre\u00e7os do milho v\u00eam recuperando desde suas baixas em meados de setembro, mas permanece balizados com teto e piso. N\u00e3o podemos recomendar uma posi\u00e7\u00e3o comprada para o milho, mas, vemos potencial de melhoria no pre\u00e7o caso o milho romper seu teto de $3,80.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Corn prices have recovered from the lows in mid-September, but remain range bound. We cannot recommend consideration of a long position at this time but believe there is upside potential if prices break out of the current trading range and trade above $3.80.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>Gr\u00e1fico 5<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-4171\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/CMU-1114-5-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"972\" height=\"766\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/CMU-1114-5-1.png 972w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/CMU-1114-5-1-300x236.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/CMU-1114-5-1-768x605.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 972px) 100vw, 972px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Gr\u00e1fico 6<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-4172\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/CMU-1114-6.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"974\" height=\"760\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/CMU-1114-6.png 974w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/CMU-1114-6-300x234.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/CMU-1114-6-768x599.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 974px) 100vw, 974px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Gr\u00e1fico 7<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-4173\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/CMU-1114-7.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"972\" height=\"745\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/CMU-1114-7.png 972w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/CMU-1114-7-300x230.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/CMU-1114-7-768x589.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 972px) 100vw, 972px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">O relat\u00f3rio de novembro da WASDE relatou produtividade da soja em 52,1 bushels por acre (Gr\u00e1fico 8, 2018). A estimativa m\u00e9dia para o relat\u00f3rio era de 52,9 bushels por acre. A produ\u00e7\u00e3o de soja foi relatada em 4,60 milh\u00f5es de bushels (Gr\u00e1fico 9, 2018). A estimativa m\u00e9dia para a produ\u00e7\u00e3o era de 4,68 milh\u00f5es de bushels. Estoques finais foram relatados em 955 milh\u00f5es bushesl (Gr\u00e1fico 10, 2018) enquanto a estimativa mediana era de 898 milh\u00f5es de bushels. A grande aumento de estoques finais foi uma surpresa e o mercado reagiu em queda com a not\u00edcia.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Os dados sinalizam queda no pre\u00e7o da soja, especialmente os invent\u00e1rios finais. O pre\u00e7o da soja tem recuperado de suas baixas em setembro, mas n\u00e3o cremos que pre\u00e7os altos podem ser sustentados. Como mencionado anteriormente, as tarifas chinesas tem causado exporta\u00e7\u00f5es para a China a cair de mais do que 30 toneladas m\u00e9tricas por semana em Julho e Agosto para 1,2 toneladas m\u00e9tricas por semana em setembro e outubro; soja armazenada nos EUA est\u00e1 aumentando. Consequentemente, recomendamos considerar uma posi\u00e7\u00e3o vendida nos contratos futuros ou <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">spreads<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>Gr\u00e1fico 8<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-4174\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/CMU-1114-8.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"972\" height=\"768\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/CMU-1114-8.png 972w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/CMU-1114-8-300x237.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/CMU-1114-8-768x607.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 972px) 100vw, 972px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Gr\u00e1fico 9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-4176\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/CMU-1114-9-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"972\" height=\"760\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/CMU-1114-9-1.png 972w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/CMU-1114-9-1-300x235.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/CMU-1114-9-1-768x600.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 972px) 100vw, 972px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Gr\u00e1fico 10<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-4177\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/CMU-1114-10.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"972\" height=\"733\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/CMU-1114-10.png 972w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/CMU-1114-10-300x226.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/CMU-1114-10-768x579.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 972px) 100vw, 972px\" \/><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Energia Petr\u00f3leo e G\u00e1s Natural: Um Estudo em Contrastes Pre\u00e7os de petr\u00f3leo entraram em colapso desde o meio de outubro, caindo de $77,00 para $58,00 (Gr\u00e1fico 1). Diversos fatores tem contribu\u00eddo para essa queda hist\u00f3rica de pre\u00e7os. Estoques de petr\u00f3leo bruto norte-americano tem aumentado ao longo das ultimas sete semanas (Gr\u00e1fico 2, linha preta). A [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4165","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4165","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4165"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4165\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4180,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4165\/revisions\/4180"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4165"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4165"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4165"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}