{"id":6749,"date":"2020-07-08T13:54:01","date_gmt":"2020-07-08T17:54:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/?p=6749"},"modified":"2021-04-25T22:01:06","modified_gmt":"2021-04-26T02:01:06","slug":"gold-silver-and-palladium-commentary-july-8-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/gold-silver-and-palladium-commentary-july-8-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold, Silver, and Palladium Commentary July 8, 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"<h5 style=\"text-align: center;\">Gold, Silver, and Palladium Commentary<\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"text-align: center;\">July 8, 2020<\/h5>\n<p>The ratio of the 1-month Gold contract to the 1-month Silver contract (Figure 1) continued to slip lower over the last week.\u00a0 With the front month silver and gold contracts closing yesterday at $18.62 and $1,804.2, respectively, the gold\/silver ratio is now 96.85, down about 1% from last week. \u00a0August Gold (Figure 2) continued moving up, again trying to remain above 1800 while September silver (Figure 3) moved up to $18.699 from $18.218 last week.\u00a0 \u00a0While silver remains in the trading range between 16.5 and 19, total open interest increased for the last few trading days but remains well below the recent peak of June 22, 2020.<\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6751\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Metals-July-8-Titled-Figure-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1185\" height=\"766\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Metals-July-8-Titled-Figure-1.png 1185w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Metals-July-8-Titled-Figure-1-300x194.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Metals-July-8-Titled-Figure-1-1024x662.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Metals-July-8-Titled-Figure-1-768x496.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1185px) 100vw, 1185px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>On 7\/7\/2020 the August COMEX gold contract (Figure 2) ended the day at $1,809.9, up from $1,800.5 at the close on 6\/30\/2020.\u00a0\u00a0 Open interest has leveled off since last week and it is interesting to note that it remains at levels seen 2017 \u2013 2019, but the volume 50-day SMA remains at levels more consistent with Dec 2009 \u2013 Nov 2016.\u00a0 \u00a0Gold is moving up today with expectations of increasing inflation from money added to the economy due to COVID.\u00a0\u00a0 This continues to drive down real yields of Treasuries, which negatively correlates with gold prices.\u00a0\u00a0 However, should equities turn south, this could drive demand for liquidity, causing some downward pressure on gold.\u00a0 We expect gold to trade in the range between $1,774 and $1,837 for the next week.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6752\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Metals-July-8-Titled-Figure-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1239\" height=\"701\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Metals-July-8-Titled-Figure-2.png 1239w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Metals-July-8-Titled-Figure-2-300x170.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Metals-July-8-Titled-Figure-2-1024x579.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Metals-July-8-Titled-Figure-2-768x435.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1239px) 100vw, 1239px\" \/> <img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6753\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Metals-July-8-Titled-Figure-3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1177\" height=\"745\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Metals-July-8-Titled-Figure-3.png 1177w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Metals-July-8-Titled-Figure-3-300x190.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Metals-July-8-Titled-Figure-3-1024x648.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Metals-July-8-Titled-Figure-3-768x486.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1177px) 100vw, 1177px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Palladium remains essentially unchanged since last week, and open interest continues to build very slowly, but it is still below values at the end of March 2020.\u00a0\u00a0As mentioned last week we will continue to watch this trend to see if there may be early signs of a directional move.\u00a0\u00a0Without a clear signal of increasing open interest or news on increased production demand, we expect palladium to continue to trade in a similar pattern for the near future.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6754\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Metals-July-8-Titled-Figure-4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1197\" height=\"761\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Metals-July-8-Titled-Figure-4.png 1197w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Metals-July-8-Titled-Figure-4-300x191.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Metals-July-8-Titled-Figure-4-1024x651.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Metals-July-8-Titled-Figure-4-768x488.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1197px) 100vw, 1197px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div>I have tracked commitment of trader swap trades ever since Alasdair Macleod wrote an article back in May 2020 about bullion bank trading desks being unable to close their short positions.\u00a0\u00a0I noticed recently that the short positions have continued to increase, not decrease as would be expected with the climbing price of gold (see chart below).\u00a0\u00a0Alasdair followed up with a second article yesterday regarding the topic that you can read <a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldmoney.com\/research\/goldmoney-insights\/a-potential-crisis-in-comex-gold\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"color: #3366ff;\">here<\/span><\/a>, further explaining the potential risk to the banking sector.<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-6750\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Metals-July-8-Figure-5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"4314\" height=\"2969\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Metals-July-8-Figure-5.png 4314w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Metals-July-8-Figure-5-300x206.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Metals-July-8-Figure-5-1024x705.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Metals-July-8-Figure-5-768x529.png 768w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Metals-July-8-Figure-5-1536x1057.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Metals-July-8-Figure-5-2048x1409.png 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 4314px) 100vw, 4314px\" \/><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>If you would like access to the great insights and analysis provided by the Fundamental Analytics platform, sign up for a <a style=\"color: #3366ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/trial\/\"><strong>15-day free trial<\/strong> <\/a> and <a style=\"color: #3366ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/app2.fundamentalanalytics.com\/webinar\/signup\"><strong>demonstration!<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>If you have any questions, please contact our Technology Manager, Mike Secen at <a style=\"color: #3366ff;\" href=\"mailto:mike.secen@fundamentalanalytics.com\">abram.finley@fundamentalanalytics.com<\/a><\/p>\n<p>We also invite you to read our other articles and follow us on social media!<\/p>\n<p>Best Regards,<\/p>\n<p>The Fundamental Analytics Team<\/p>\n<p><small><em>The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered individualized investment advice. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions.<\/em><\/small><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Gold, Silver, and Palladium Commentary July 8, 2020 The ratio of the 1-month Gold contract to the 1-month Silver contract (Figure 1) continued to slip lower over the last week.\u00a0 With the front month silver and gold contracts closing yesterday at $18.62 and $1,804.2, respectively, the gold\/silver ratio is now 96.85, down about 1% from [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6749","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6749","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6749"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6749\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6759,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6749\/revisions\/6759"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6749"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6749"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6749"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}