{"id":9622,"date":"2025-06-23T11:49:14","date_gmt":"2025-06-23T15:49:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/?p=9622"},"modified":"2025-06-24T11:50:36","modified_gmt":"2025-06-24T15:50:36","slug":"no-bulls-in-sight-for-now","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/no-bulls-in-sight-for-now\/","title":{"rendered":"No Bulls in Sight, For Now"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n
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CBOT grains sagged as ample U.S. crops, record Brazilian output, limited Chinese demand, and trade restrictions outweighed brief weather hiccups and occasional export spikes, suppressing wheat, corn, and soybean futures.<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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Wheat<\/h5>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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September futures settle just below $590 mark<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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  • Winter-wheat good\/excellent ratings climbed to their best early-June level since 2019, and spring wheat improved too, yet persistent storms in Kansas and Oklahoma delayed cutting and stirred quality worries\u2014keeping supplies ample but blunting weather-driven rallies.<\/li>\n
  • USDA\u2019s latest weekly report showed \u2248 427 kt of new-crop wheat booked, the strongest seasonal tally in more than a decade; Asian buyers led the interest, but the pick-up in demand was not large enough to offset burdensome U.S. carry-out, so Chicago prices stayed heavy.<\/li>\n
  • Russia cut its floating export duty for the mid-June shipping window and leading analysts lifted the country\u2019s harvest outlook toward 83 MMT, signaling aggressive Black-Sea offers that pressured CBOT spreads.<\/li>\n
  • The bloc\u2019s new tariff limits on Ukrainian grain, in force from early June, threaten Kyiv\u2019s EU market share and may redirect demand toward other origins, introducing geopolitical uncertainty even as global supplies remain comfortable.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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    Corn<\/h5>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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    Corn prices struggle to find a pattern despite increased exports<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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    • A pair of early-June Crop Progress updates had corn 97% planted and 72% rated good\/excellent, while the June WASDE shaved ending stocks only slightly\u2014insufficient to spark fresh bull interest.<\/li>\n
    • Exporters booked about 0.9 MMT of old-crop corn in the latest weekly FAS report\u2014respectable but not stellar\u2014just as EIA data showed ethanol output slipping 1% and inventories climbing 2%, hinting at tepid domestic offtake.<\/li>\n
    • CONAB nudged its 2024\/25 corn estimate up to roughly 130 MMT and early safrinha harvest reports remained strong, ensuring FOB Santos offers stayed well below U.S. Gulf values and capping any CBOT bounce.<\/li>\n
    • The EU\u2019s re-imposed grain quotas curb Ukrainian feed-grain access, while simultaneous U.S.\u2013Vietnam talks (backed by MoUs to buy U.S. feed grains) hint at future demand re-routing; for now, neither development has offset the weight of ample world supply.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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      Soybeans<\/h5>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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      Soybean futures reach $10.5<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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      • USDA had about 90 % of soybeans planted and 68 % rated good\/excellent in its first June progress report, with conditions holding near that level a week later\u2014ample evidence of a comfortable new-crop supply that kept a weather premium from building.<\/li>\n
      • CONAB nudged its record 2024\/25 production call up to \u2248169 MMT, while ANEC vessel line-ups show 12\u201315 MMT of beans sailing in June, leaving FOB Paranagu\u00e1 sharply under U.S. Gulf and weighing on Chicago spreads.<\/li>\n
      • In the week ended June 12 U.S. exporters booked 539 kt of old-crop sales, the best weekly tally in two months, yet purchases were led by Europe and Mexico; Chinese buying remained minimal.<\/li>\n
      • A mid-June Reuters report detailed Beijing\u2019s push to cut soymeal inclusion in feed to 10 % this decade\u2014an initiative that could trim imports by \u224810 MMT per year and added a geopolitical headwind for CBOT bulls.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        CBOT grains sagged as ample U.S. crops, record Brazilian output, limited Chinese demand, and trade restrictions outweighed brief weather hiccups and occasional export spikes, suppressing wheat, corn, and soybean futures. Wheat September futures settle just below $590 mark Winter-wheat good\/excellent ratings climbed to their best early-June level since 2019, and spring wheat improved too, yet […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9622","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9622","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9622"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9622\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9623,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9622\/revisions\/9623"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9622"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9622"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9622"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}