{"id":9624,"date":"2025-06-17T13:00:08","date_gmt":"2025-06-17T17:00:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/?p=9624"},"modified":"2025-06-26T13:01:08","modified_gmt":"2025-06-26T17:01:08","slug":"middle-east-tensions-lift-energy-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/middle-east-tensions-lift-energy-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"Middle East Tensions Lift Energy Prices"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n
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Energy commodities climbed suddenly due to Israeli strikes on Iran, skyrocketing the geopolitical premium.<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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Crude Oil<\/h5>\n

WTI futures soared on Middle East conflict<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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  • In late May, the eight key OPEC+ members stuck to their plan to add another 411 kb\/d in July, the third monthly step in their 2025 unwind\u2014leaving roughly 4.5 mb\/d of cuts parked as spare capacity if the market softens.<\/li>\n
  • Latest EIA report showed a 3.6 mb crude draw and stocks 8 % below the 5-yr norm, while refinery runs touched 94 % ahead of the driving season; yet Baker Hughes\u2019 oil-and-gas rig count slid to 555 on 13 Jun, the lowest since \u201921, flagging slower shale momentum.<\/li>\n
  • Israel\u2019s air-strikes on Iranian targets ignited Strait of Hormuz jitters and pushed WTI up 7 % in a day (to $72.98\/bbl), its biggest intraday jump since 2022, even though physical exports remain unaffected so far.<\/li>\n
  • Conflict headlines and tightening U.S. inventories lured funds back\u2014CFTC data show money-manager net longs in NYMEX\/ICE WTI up 15,157 lots to 121,911 in the week to 10 Jun, the strongest build of Q2 and a sign of momentum-driven buying.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
    Gasoline<\/h5>\n

    Gasoline prices jumped on increased geopolitical and weather risk<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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    • U.S. gasoline stocks inched up 1.5 mb to 229.8 mb for the week to 6 Jun, still ~4 mb below last year; refiners lifted output to 9.5 mb\/d, yet subdued imports kept days-supply at a lean 25.9.<\/li>\n
    • Four-week implied consumption holds near 8.9 mb\/d, and AAA logged record road-trip traffic over Memorial Day; the extra mileage has kept national pump prices around $3.10 \/gal while steadily eroding the thin stock cushion.<\/li>\n
    • NOAA\u2019s above-normal Atlantic hurricane outlook and fresh Texas warnings have revived Gulf-refinery anxiety, while May outages on the West Coast drove gasoline imports to a four-year high\u2014leaving a weather premium embedded in RBOB spreads.<\/li>\n
    • Front-month RBOB surged 11 % from $2.02 to $2.23 \/gal between 30 May and 13 Jun; open interest near 86k lots and heavier volumes suggest funds are rebuilding length to hedge hurricane risk and tightening U.S. balances.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
      Natural Gas<\/h5>\n

      Natural gas futures rose above $3.5 mark, as demand expects to lift<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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      • Three straight triple-digit builds (122 Bcf on May 30, 109 Bcf on Jun 6 and 101 Bcf the prior week) pushed working gas to 2.71 Tcf\u2014about 5 % above the five-year average\u2014keeping a fundamental cap on rallies despite early-summer heat.<\/li>\n
      • Seasonal maintenance trimmed U.S. dry-gas output to roughly 105 Bcf\/d, while LNG feedgas sank to 14 Bcf\/d; traders expect both to rebound as Gulf plants exit outages just as hotter weather lifts power-burn demand.<\/li>\n
      • Israel\u2019s 13 Jun strikes on Iranian targets prompted a shutdown of the Leviathan field, slashing Israeli supply to Egypt and reviving Mideast LNG-route risk\u2014one reason gas joined oil in a conflict-sparked bounce.<\/li>\n
      • Front-month Henry Hub climbed about 4 % from $3.45 to $3.58, during the last two weeks; the Aug\/Jul spread blew out to a record 11 \u00a2\/MMBtu as funds rolled length into late-summer, and total NYMEX open interest hovers near 1.7 million contracts.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

         <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        Energy commodities climbed suddenly due to Israeli strikes on Iran, skyrocketing the geopolitical premium. Crude Oil WTI futures soared on Middle East conflict In late May, the eight key OPEC+ members stuck to their plan to add another 411 kb\/d in July, the third monthly step in their 2025 unwind\u2014leaving roughly 4.5 mb\/d of cuts […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9624","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9624","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9624"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9624\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9625,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9624\/revisions\/9625"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9624"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9624"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9624"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}