{"id":9688,"date":"2025-08-18T15:02:08","date_gmt":"2025-08-18T19:02:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/?p=9688"},"modified":"2025-08-22T15:13:49","modified_gmt":"2025-08-22T19:13:49","slug":"grain-futures-slide-on-export-pressure","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/grain-futures-slide-on-export-pressure\/","title":{"rendered":"Grain Futures Slide on Export Pressure"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Dr. Ken Rietz<\/p>\n<p>Grain futures softened as the August WASDE highlighted ample corn, tighter soybeans, and firmer wheat; healthy U.S. crop ratings, slow loadings, and aggressive Black Sea\/Brazil exports outweighed demand and crush strength.<\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff9900;\">Wheat<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><em>December contract hit 1-year low, as exports weaken<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ecp.yusercontent.com\/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Ffiles.constantcontact.com%2Fcdf199da001%2F496c481e-d64b-4291-8417-b09e0af2f81e.png%3Frdr%3Dtrue&amp;t=1755888130&amp;ymreqid=4f744fe0-de56-83e5-1cd1-3500b901f500&amp;sig=59PnWGAZe3bdYQm1N9dKug--~D\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>USDA\u2019s August update leaned supportive but not bullish.<\/strong> WASDE trimmed U.S. ending stocks to ~869 million bushels on stronger export prospects and lowered the season-average price, while global ending stocks fell to the lowest level since 2015\/16.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Field data signaled ample near-term flow.<\/strong> Crop Progress showed winter wheat largely wrapped up,\u00a0and spring-wheat harvest is accelerating with ~49% good\/excellent conditions, giving enough supply comfort to cap rallies despite quality chatter.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Export demand was solid on paper, but shipments lagged.<\/strong> Weekly FAS reports logged ~723K tonnes in new-crop sales &#8211; well above recent averages &#8211; yet export loadings stayed subdued, tempering futures\u2019 responses.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Black Sea competitiveness intensified.<\/strong> Russia zeroed its wheat export duty and moved to accelerate shipments after a July lull, keeping FOB offers aggressive and exerting pressure on Chicago spreads.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><strong>Corn<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em><strong>Corn futures plummet on revised higher ending stocks<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ecp.yusercontent.com\/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Ffiles.constantcontact.com%2Fcdf199da001%2Fd975dcb4-11dd-4622-9bd4-094407be6cd1.png%3Frdr%3Dtrue&amp;t=1755888130&amp;ymreqid=4f744fe0-de56-83e5-1cd1-3500b901f500&amp;sig=WwZExgpzd0O2Cla4VBOfGA--~D\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>The August WASDE reset the U.S. supply curve lower.<\/strong> USDA projected a record 16.7 bn bu crop and lifted 2025\/26 ending stocks to ~2.1 billion bushel; global corn stocks were also revised higher, keeping price pressure intact.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Field conditions limited any weather premium.<\/strong>\u00a0National corn ratings hovered around the low-70s % good\/excellent, with pollination largely complete, signaling broadly favorable yield prospects during the period.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Export demand faltered at the old-crop tail.<\/strong>\u00a0The latest weekly report showed net sales reductions for the current marketing year for corn, underscoring lackluster overseas pull even as new-crop interest builds.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Brazilian competition intensified.<\/strong> ANEC\u2019s line-ups pointed to ~8 MMT of August corn exports &#8211; well above last year &#8211; reinforcing South American dominance in key destinations and weighing on CBOT spreads.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><strong>Soybeans<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Soybeans revived but China presents diminished demand<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ecp.yusercontent.com\/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Ffiles.constantcontact.com%2Fcdf199da001%2F942ff961-bb48-4f02-a2d6-2cc7bfe61a2d.png%3Frdr%3Dtrue&amp;t=1755888130&amp;ymreqid=4f744fe0-de56-83e5-1cd1-3500b901f500&amp;sig=quF9_mA7qUVtBOXpXW831A--~D\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>The August WASDE tightened the U.S. balance modestly.<\/strong> USDA cut harvested area while lifting yield, reduced exports, and placed 2025\/26 ending stocks near 290 million bushels, a slight drawdown that tempered but didn\u2019t reverse the bearish tone.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Field conditions stayed broadly favorable.<\/strong>\u00a0The latest Crop Progress during the period kept U.S. soybeans ~68% good\/excellent, limiting weather-risk premia as pod-setting advanced.<\/li>\n<li><strong>The export pipeline remained soft under China&#8217;s headwinds.<\/strong> New-crop commitments hovered near 20-year lows, and Chinese buyers continued to favor South American origin amid unresolved tariff risks, muting board rallies.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Brazilian flow dominated; domestic crush offset only partially.<\/strong> ANEC projected record-like August shipments (\u22488.1\u20138.8 MMT), reinforcing aggressive FOB offers, while NOPA\u2019s record July crush underpinned meal\/oil demand but couldn\u2019t outweigh sluggish exports.<\/li>\n<\/ul>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dr. Ken Rietz Grain futures softened as the August WASDE highlighted ample corn, tighter soybeans, and firmer wheat; healthy U.S. crop ratings, slow loadings, and aggressive Black Sea\/Brazil exports outweighed demand and crush strength. Wheat December contract hit 1-year low, as exports weaken USDA\u2019s August update leaned supportive but not bullish. WASDE trimmed U.S. ending [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9688","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9688","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9688"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9688\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9690,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9688\/revisions\/9690"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9688"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9688"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9688"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}