Crude Oil<\/strong><\/h4>\n Biggest build-up since late October 2024<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n![](\"https:\/\/files.constantcontact.com\/cdf199da001\/67e217c2-b342-4cd4-938c-7a29b39dcd4f.png?rdr=true\")
<\/p>\n
\n- U.S. balances loosened.<\/strong>\u00a0EIA\u2019s latest two reports showed back-to-back crude builds (+2.4 mb, then +3.9 mb), refinery runs near 95%, gasoline demand soft on a 4-week basis, and sizable distillate builds\u2014pressuring WTI.<\/li>\n
- Global supply outlook tilted bearish.<\/strong>\u00a0The IEA said supply growth\u2014helped by OPEC+ unwinding cuts and robust non-OPEC output\u2014should outpace demand, pointing to a growing surplus and capping rallies.<\/li>\n
- U.S. shale signals a slow, steady capacity to respond.<\/strong>\u00a0Baker Hughes reported a small uptick in the oil-rig count (close to 416), hinting at incremental future supply rather than a rapid surge.<\/li>\n
- Geopolitics added noise but limited net disruption.<\/strong> Washington tightened sanctions on Iran-linked oil shipping networks, while G7 partners moved to tighten Russian price-cap enforcement; flows persisted via \u201cshadow fleet\u201d workarounds, muting risk premia.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Gasoline<\/h4>\n
Consecutive draws came to an end, futures squeezed<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n![](\"https:\/\/files.constantcontact.com\/cdf199da001\/59eb7f4f-5e8b-404d-b831-4fc712119441.png?rdr=true\")
<\/p>\n
\n- Stocks fluctuated but stayed ample.<\/strong>\u00a0<\/span>EIA reported a sizeable gasoline draw followed by a +1.5 mb build, with the 4-week motor-gasoline supplied ~8.9\u20139.1 mb\/d (\u2248flat to \u22121% y\/y) and refineries near 94\u201395%\u2014a setup that limited RBOB upside.<\/li>\n
- Seasonal demand decelerated.<\/strong>\u00a0AAA flagged softer post-summer driving and a national retail average near $3.19\/gal, while EIA\u2019s September outlook pointed to easing prices into 2026\u2014both consistent with weaker shoulder-season pull on futures.<\/li>\n
- Imports cushioned the East Coast.<\/strong>\u00a0Gasoline (and components) arrivals rose to ~0.68 mb\/d after ~0.58 mb\/d the prior week, helping balance regional supply even as domestic production eased\u2014another headwind for sustained rallies.<\/li>\n
- Limited weather\/geopolitical premium.<\/strong>\u00a0Despite peak hurricane season and occasional risk headlines, the Atlantic stayed unusually quiet and crude softened on oversupply\/weak U.S. demand concerns, keeping RBOB largely range-bound.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Natural Gas<\/h4>\n
Larger than average buildups pressure natural gas prices<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n![](\"https:\/\/files.constantcontact.com\/cdf199da001\/4f54aa26-534e-4dcf-bf29-43d4f9051daf.png?rdr=true\")
<\/p>\n
\n- Storage remained a headwind.<\/strong>\u00a0<\/span>EIA reported a larger-than-average +71 Bcf injection, lifting inventories to 3.343 Tcf (\u22486% above the 5-yr norm)\u2014a surplus that limited upside in NYMEX gas.<\/li>\n
- Supply steady; LNG pull softer.<\/strong>\u00a0Dry output averaged around 107 Bcf\/d and LNG pipeline receipts hovered near 16 Bcf\/d, while early-September feed-gas slid toward 15.5 Bcf\/d, modestly loosening balances.<\/li>\n
- Cooling curbed power burn.<\/strong>\u00a0With milder temperatures across key regions, gas-fired generation fell nearly 4% w\/w, offsetting heat-related demand pockets and dampening follow-through on rallies.<\/li>\n
- External demand signals stayed muted.<\/strong>\u00a0Europe\u2019s well-stocked storage and calm market tone reduced urgency for additional U.S. LNG cargoes, keeping export-led support limited.<\/li>\n<\/ul>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
WTI pressured by U.S. builds and surplus outlook; RBOB range-bound on ample stocks, slower shoulder-season demand; natural gas capped by above-average storage, robust production, easing LNG feed-gas. Crude Oil Biggest build-up since late October 2024 U.S. balances loosened.\u00a0EIA\u2019s latest two reports showed back-to-back crude builds (+2.4 mb, then +3.9 mb), refinery runs near 95%, gasoline […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9732","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9732","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9732"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9732\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9737,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9732\/revisions\/9737"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9732"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9732"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9732"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
<\/p>\n
- \n
- U.S. balances loosened.<\/strong>\u00a0EIA\u2019s latest two reports showed back-to-back crude builds (+2.4 mb, then +3.9 mb), refinery runs near 95%, gasoline demand soft on a 4-week basis, and sizable distillate builds\u2014pressuring WTI.<\/li>\n
- Global supply outlook tilted bearish.<\/strong>\u00a0The IEA said supply growth\u2014helped by OPEC+ unwinding cuts and robust non-OPEC output\u2014should outpace demand, pointing to a growing surplus and capping rallies.<\/li>\n
- U.S. shale signals a slow, steady capacity to respond.<\/strong>\u00a0Baker Hughes reported a small uptick in the oil-rig count (close to 416), hinting at incremental future supply rather than a rapid surge.<\/li>\n
- Geopolitics added noise but limited net disruption.<\/strong> Washington tightened sanctions on Iran-linked oil shipping networks, while G7 partners moved to tighten Russian price-cap enforcement; flows persisted via \u201cshadow fleet\u201d workarounds, muting risk premia.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Gasoline<\/h4>\n
Consecutive draws came to an end, futures squeezed<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n- \n
- Stocks fluctuated but stayed ample.<\/strong>\u00a0<\/span>EIA reported a sizeable gasoline draw followed by a +1.5 mb build, with the 4-week motor-gasoline supplied ~8.9\u20139.1 mb\/d (\u2248flat to \u22121% y\/y) and refineries near 94\u201395%\u2014a setup that limited RBOB upside.<\/li>\n
- Seasonal demand decelerated.<\/strong>\u00a0AAA flagged softer post-summer driving and a national retail average near $3.19\/gal, while EIA\u2019s September outlook pointed to easing prices into 2026\u2014both consistent with weaker shoulder-season pull on futures.<\/li>\n
- Imports cushioned the East Coast.<\/strong>\u00a0Gasoline (and components) arrivals rose to ~0.68 mb\/d after ~0.58 mb\/d the prior week, helping balance regional supply even as domestic production eased\u2014another headwind for sustained rallies.<\/li>\n
- Limited weather\/geopolitical premium.<\/strong>\u00a0Despite peak hurricane season and occasional risk headlines, the Atlantic stayed unusually quiet and crude softened on oversupply\/weak U.S. demand concerns, keeping RBOB largely range-bound.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Natural Gas<\/h4>\n
Larger than average buildups pressure natural gas prices<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n- \n
- Storage remained a headwind.<\/strong>\u00a0<\/span>EIA reported a larger-than-average +71 Bcf injection, lifting inventories to 3.343 Tcf (\u22486% above the 5-yr norm)\u2014a surplus that limited upside in NYMEX gas.<\/li>\n
- Supply steady; LNG pull softer.<\/strong>\u00a0Dry output averaged around 107 Bcf\/d and LNG pipeline receipts hovered near 16 Bcf\/d, while early-September feed-gas slid toward 15.5 Bcf\/d, modestly loosening balances.<\/li>\n
- Cooling curbed power burn.<\/strong>\u00a0With milder temperatures across key regions, gas-fired generation fell nearly 4% w\/w, offsetting heat-related demand pockets and dampening follow-through on rallies.<\/li>\n
- External demand signals stayed muted.<\/strong>\u00a0Europe\u2019s well-stocked storage and calm market tone reduced urgency for additional U.S. LNG cargoes, keeping export-led support limited.<\/li>\n<\/ul>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
WTI pressured by U.S. builds and surplus outlook; RBOB range-bound on ample stocks, slower shoulder-season demand; natural gas capped by above-average storage, robust production, easing LNG feed-gas. Crude Oil Biggest build-up since late October 2024 U.S. balances loosened.\u00a0EIA\u2019s latest two reports showed back-to-back crude builds (+2.4 mb, then +3.9 mb), refinery runs near 95%, gasoline […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9732","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9732","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9732"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9732\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9737,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9732\/revisions\/9737"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9732"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9732"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9732"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
- Supply steady; LNG pull softer.<\/strong>\u00a0Dry output averaged around 107 Bcf\/d and LNG pipeline receipts hovered near 16 Bcf\/d, while early-September feed-gas slid toward 15.5 Bcf\/d, modestly loosening balances.<\/li>\n
- Seasonal demand decelerated.<\/strong>\u00a0AAA flagged softer post-summer driving and a national retail average near $3.19\/gal, while EIA\u2019s September outlook pointed to easing prices into 2026\u2014both consistent with weaker shoulder-season pull on futures.<\/li>\n
- Global supply outlook tilted bearish.<\/strong>\u00a0The IEA said supply growth\u2014helped by OPEC+ unwinding cuts and robust non-OPEC output\u2014should outpace demand, pointing to a growing surplus and capping rallies.<\/li>\n