{"id":9747,"date":"2025-10-06T09:29:29","date_gmt":"2025-10-06T13:29:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/?p=9747"},"modified":"2025-10-14T09:31:17","modified_gmt":"2025-10-14T13:31:17","slug":"grains-weekly-wheat-corn-soybeans-under-pressure","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/grains-weekly-wheat-corn-soybeans-under-pressure\/","title":{"rendered":"Grains Weekly | Wheat, Corn &#038; Soybeans Under Pressure"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span data-olk-copy-source=\"MessageBody\">Larger U.S. wheat supplies, corn harvest, and Brazilian exports signaled abundance; soybeans remained comfortable with weak Chinese demand; bottlenecks and Black Sea offers pressured competitiveness despite crush strength.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span data-olk-copy-source=\"MessageBody\">Wheat<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><em>Wheat at yearly lows as foreign competition intensifies<\/em><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/files.constantcontact.com\/cdf199da001\/cc390658-8bc7-44a0-929a-1b074cfde6a8.png?rdr=true\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span data-olk-copy-source=\"MessageBody\">USDA data tilted the U.S. balance heavier<\/span>. The Small Grains Summary pegged all-wheat production near 1.98 bn bushels, while Grain Stocks showed Sept-1 stocks at 2.12 bn bushels (+6% y\/y)\u2014a supply overhang for Dec CBOT.<\/li>\n<li>Late-September export sales improved, but were not game-changing. Weekly FAS highlights reported ~540K tons of new-crop wheat bookings, up sharply w\/w, yet futures reaction was muted amid abundant competitor offers.<\/li>\n<li>Black-Sea competitiveness persisted.\u00a0Russia adjusted its floating export duty (first higher, then slightly lower) while consultants kept 2025\/26 exports ~43\u201344 MMT, signaling continued aggressive pricing that pressured Chicago spreads.<\/li>\n<li>Mixed international signals, steady U.S. fieldwork.\u00a0France\u2019s crop showed below-average protein even as export ambitions were raised; Ukraine expanded winter-wheat sowing, and U.S. winter-wheat planting accelerated, collectively reinforcing ample non-U.S. supply and capping rallies.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><span data-olk-copy-source=\"MessageBody\">Corn<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><em>Oversupply threatens Corn prices<\/em><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/files.constantcontact.com\/cdf199da001\/082a6224-6042-4145-924f-616f0ec55e6c.png?rdr=true\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span data-olk-copy-source=\"MessageBody\">Heavy U.S. supply tone into harvest.<\/span>\u00a0Record-size production projections and a quickening harvest pace kept December CBOT under pressure. Even with a smaller year-over-year carry-in, new-crop volume dominated sentiment.<\/li>\n<li>Forward sales firmed, led by Mexico. Net new-crop corn bookings hit ~1.9 MMT for the week ended Sept. 18, with additional late-September \u201cflash\u201d sales pushing Mexico\u2019s commitments above 9 MMT. Basis improved, but board gains were limited.<\/li>\n<li>River logistics tempered Gulf competitiveness.\u00a0Low Mississippi levels and elevated barge tariffs constrained drafts\/tow sizes, lifting CIF costs and muting arbitrage to export\u2014another headwind for sustained December strength.<\/li>\n<li>Global flows favored rivals amid muted Black Sea corn. Ukraine\u2019s September corn exports were minimal on tight supplies\/late harvest, while Brazil\u2019s shippers guided ~7.1\u20137.6 MMT for September, maintaining aggressive competition into key destinations.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><span data-olk-copy-source=\"MessageBody\">Soybeans<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><em>Soybean futures remain close to $10.4 mark<\/em><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/files.constantcontact.com\/cdf199da001\/fb833480-1ed6-4b69-bfa0-dac2dd6ee827.png?rdr=true\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span data-olk-copy-source=\"MessageBody\">U.S. balance leans comfortably into harvest.<\/span>\u00a0Sept-1 soybean stocks printed 316 million bushels (-8% y\/y) while Crop Progress showed harvest starting with broadly steady conditions, keeping a lid on weather premia for Jan \u201926.<\/li>\n<li>New-crop export sales improved, but China stayed light.\u00a0Weekly FAS tallied roughly 0.7 MMT of 2025\/26 bookings led by Egypt\/Taiwan\/Mexico; low Mississippi River levels kept barge freight firm, tempering Gulf competitiveness.<\/li>\n<li>Brazil\u2019s pipeline undercut U.S. offers.\u00a0ANEC projected ~6.75 MMT September soybean exports (with strong Q4 line-ups), reinforcing aggressive FOB Paranagu\u00e1 values and weighing on Chicago spreads.<\/li>\n<li>Domestic crush strong, structural demand risk abroad.\u00a0A record-high August NOPA crush (~189.8 million bushels) supported meal\/oil use, yet China\u2019s buyers continued favoring South America, and policy aims to lower soymeal inclusion signal a slower import growth path.<\/li>\n<\/ul>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Larger U.S. wheat supplies, corn harvest, and Brazilian exports signaled abundance; soybeans remained comfortable with weak Chinese demand; bottlenecks and Black Sea offers pressured competitiveness despite crush strength. Wheat Wheat at yearly lows as foreign competition intensifies USDA data tilted the U.S. balance heavier. The Small Grains Summary pegged all-wheat production near 1.98 bn bushels, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9747","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9747","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9747"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9747\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9749,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9747\/revisions\/9749"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9747"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9747"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9747"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}