{"id":9773,"date":"2025-10-20T15:07:50","date_gmt":"2025-10-20T19:07:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/?p=9773"},"modified":"2025-10-30T15:14:54","modified_gmt":"2025-10-30T19:14:54","slug":"energy-weekly-crude-builds-gasoline-cools-natgas-caps","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/energy-weekly-crude-builds-gasoline-cools-natgas-caps\/","title":{"rendered":"Energy Weekly | Crude Builds, Gasoline Cools, NatGas Caps"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span data-olk-copy-source=\"MessageBody\">Energy futures softened: WTI faced builds and tepid demand; RBOB slipped on weak consumption, draws, winter-blend shift; natural gas capped by above-average storage, shoulder-season power burn, and modest LNG recovery.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span data-olk-copy-source=\"MessageBody\">Crude Oil<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><em>Demand has decreased nearly -9% from previous year, -18% in YTD terms<\/em><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/files.constantcontact.com\/cdf199da001\/f4b35351-13a7-479d-bbb1-5988ae754a29.png?rdr=true\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>U.S. balances loosened on back-to-back builds and lower runs.<\/strong> EIA reported consecutive crude inventory increases (\u2248+3.7 mb then +3.5 mb) as refinery utilization slipped from 92% to 86%, while distillate stocks fell sharply.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Demand signals stayed tepid.<\/strong>\u00a0EIA\u2019s four-week averages showed total products supplied is down\u00a0nearly 0.5% y\/y and gasoline at ~8.7 mb\/d (-3.2% y\/y), muting RBOB-led support for WTI despite some diesel strength.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Global supply expectations capped rallies.<\/strong> The IEA\u2019s October report highlighted supply growth outpacing demand into 2026; OPEC+ maintained plans for a modest output uptick from November, and Kurdish exports\u2019 resumption added barrels to seaborne flow.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Geopolitics injected only brief risk premium.<\/strong> Tehran\u2019s Hormuz saber-rattling and Ukraine\u2019s continued strikes on Russian energy assets stirred headline volatility, but supply disruption remained limited.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 27.2px;\">Gasoline<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em>Gasoline demand remains at lows, raising growth concerns<\/em><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/files.constantcontact.com\/cdf199da001\/4fcef48e-bc3b-4dcf-9bc9-77739f207184.png?rdr=true\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Inventories tightened only marginally.<\/strong>\u00a0EIA showed U.S. gasoline stocks down 1.6 mb (week ending Oct 3) and 0.3 mb (week ending Oct 10), now slightly below the five-year norm, as refinery utilization slipped to 85.7% and gasoline output eased to 9.4 mb\/d\u2014supportive, but not a breakout catalyst.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Demand ran softer than seasonal.<\/strong>\u00a0The four-week average of motor-gasoline supplied hovered near 8.7 mb\/d (-3.2% y\/y), while AAA reported the national pump average drifting toward $3 on weaker demand and cheaper winter-blend, muting RBOB rallies.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Imports and blend components cushioned supply.<\/strong>\u00a0Total motor-gasoline imports (finished plus blending components) averaged ~532 kb\/d in the latest week, helping balance East-Coast availability even as runs fell during maintenance.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Geopolitics\/weather added noise, not premium.<\/strong> Headlines around shifts in Russian crude buying and a quiet Atlantic kept risk limited; broader crude market softness and narrowing backwardation also weighed on product cracks.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><span data-olk-copy-source=\"MessageBody\">Natural Gas<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><em>F<span data-olk-copy-source=\"MessageBody\">utures dip below $3 mark as storage soars<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/files.constantcontact.com\/cdf199da001\/37ebb19b-49ab-42d4-ac0d-afebf1a8a504.png?rdr=true\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span data-olk-copy-source=\"MessageBody\"><strong>Storage surplus limited upside.<\/strong>\u00a0<\/span>Two successive EIA reports showed +80 Bcf injections, lifting working gas to 3.72 Tcf (~4% above the 5-yr average)\u2014a comfortable cushion that kept rallies in check.<\/li>\n<li><strong>LNG dipped, then rebounded.<\/strong>\u00a0Fall maintenance curtailed Cove Point flows early in the window; by mid-October, total U.S. feed-gas rose toward ~16.5\u201317 Bcf\/d, offering only modest support amid ample inventories.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Shoulder-season cooling eased power burn.<\/strong> EIA noted fewer cooling-degree days across the Southeast and a ~19% w\/w drop in Florida gas-fired consumption, softening prompt demand despite lingering regional heat pockets.<\/li>\n<li><strong>External backdrop stayed comfortable.<\/strong> EU storage hovered in the low-80% range entering October, signaling limited urgency for additional LNG and tempering export-led support for NYMEX gas.<\/li>\n<\/ul>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Energy futures softened: WTI faced builds and tepid demand; RBOB slipped on weak consumption, draws, winter-blend shift; natural gas capped by above-average storage, shoulder-season power burn, and modest LNG recovery. Crude Oil Demand has decreased nearly -9% from previous year, -18% in YTD terms &nbsp; U.S. balances loosened on back-to-back builds and lower runs. EIA [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9773","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9773","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9773"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9773\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9775,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9773\/revisions\/9775"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9773"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9773"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9773"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}