DOE Insights March 4, 2020
Crude Oil Stocks Build, Less than Expectations
The DOE reported Total Crude Oil Inventories increased by 784, 000 barrels to 444.1 million barrels for the week ending February 28, 2020, while the expectations average was for a 2.0 million barrel build.
Total hydrocarbon supplies decreased by 11.9 million barrels to 1,279 million barrels.
Crude Oil Production was up 100,000 barrels per day at 13.1 million barrels per day.
Total Crude Imports were unchanged at 6.2 million barrels per day.
Total Crude Exports increased by 497,000 barrels per day to 4.2 million barrels per day.
Total Refinery Crude Runs decreased by 300,000 barrels per day to 15.70 million barrels per day.

Crude oil price moves are in reaction to headlines. Tuesday morning crude prices jumped following the announcement that the Federal Reserve cut its target interest rate by 50 basis points, but fell back in afternoon trading. Traders appear more concerned about the impact on crude oil demand resulting from the global spread of COVID-19. There are OPEC and OPEC+ meetings scheduled for Thursday and Friday. Last month the OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee proposed deepening cuts by another 0.6 million barrels per day in the second quarter, and Saudi Arabia is recommending a cut of 1 million barrels per day to support prices.

 

Gasoline Stocks Draw, Greater than Expectations

Total MotorGasoline Inventories decreased by 4.3 million barrels to 252.0 million barrels for the week ending February 28, 2020. The expectations average was for a 2.1 million barrel decrease.

Implied Demand increased by 300,000 barrels per day to 10.9 million barrels per day.

Gasoline Production was down 40,00 barrels per day to 9.76 million barrels per day.

Despite the fact that gasoline stocks have seasonally peaked and demand has returned, crack spreads have weakened during this volatility price period.

 

Distillates Stocks Draw, Greater than Expectations

Total Distillates Stocks decreased by 4.0 million barrels to 134.5 million barrels for the week ending February 28, 2020, while the expectations average was for a 1.9 million barrel draw.

Total Distillates Production was down 200,000 barrels per day at 4.65 million barrels per day.

Total Distillates Implied Demand increased by 20,000 barrels per day to 5.35 million barrels per day.

Heating oil cracks have been falling since early January. They also took a hit with the collapse of crude oil prices and now appear that the cracks can recover.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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Regards,
The Fundamental Analytics Team

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