Our weekly commentaries and updates will remain free until April 22, 2019. Effective April 22, 2019, a subscription will be required in order to receive them. Anyone who signs up before April 30, 2019, will receive a yearly subscription at the discounted rate of $99/yr. Of course, clients of Fundamental Analytics and BlackSummit Financial Group will continue receiving our weekly content for free.
We would be happy to discuss this commentary with you and provide additional market insights. Feel free to call us at 312-348-7518 or email us at email@example.com
The new Fundamental Analytics platform will launch in March 2019. To see what the FA platform can do for you sign up for a free trial on our website or contact one of associates.
We will be running a special introductory price for those who sign up between March 15th and May 15th.
Benefits of FA:
Easy to use, web-based and menu driven platform.
Extensive history of data.
Superior graphing capabilities
April 04, 2019 | by Joel Fingerman
Since March 6, 2019, front-month crude oil prices have increased more than $6, from $56.22 to $62.46 per barrel. Chart 1 of the forward curves for those two dates also shows the contango coming out of the market to a primarily backwardated market. As of March 6, the contango was over two dollars from the April contract at $56.22 to the December contract at $58.61 (red line).
As of April 3, the contango was only nine cents from the May contract at $62.46 to the July contract at $62.55; after that, the forward curve is backwardated. Backwardation supports rising prices, and, in turn, rising prices generally increase backwardation. The forward curves are indicating higher prices.
For more insights and analysis or to find out about our free trial offer, go to www.fundamentalanalytics.com
Follow us on Twitter @fundanalytics or on LinkedIn
The Fundamental Analytics Team
Nossos comentários e atualizações semanais permanecerão gratuitos até 22 de abril de 2019. A partir de 22 de abril de 2019, será necessária uma assinatura para recebê-los. Qualquer pessoa que se inscreva antes de 30 de abril de 2019 receberá uma assinatura anual com uma taxa de desconto de US $ 99 / ano. É claro que os clientes da Fundamental Analytics e do BlackSummit Financial Group continuarão recebendo nosso conteúdo semanal gratuitamente.
Ficaríamos felizes em discutir esse comentário com você e fornecer informações adicionais sobre o mercado. Sinta-se livre para nos ligar em 312-348-7518 ou envie um email para nós firstname.lastname@example.org
Commodity Market Update Portguese Translation March 22, 2019
Antes de 2014, o petróleo bruto produzido nos EUA, por lei federal, não podia ser exportado.
Quando a lei foi alterada em meados de 2014, as exportações de petróleo dos EUA aumentaram
para cerca de 0,5 milhões de barris por dia. A partir de meados de 2017, com o aumento da
produção nacional de xisto bruto, as exportações de petróleo aumentaram dramaticamente para
3,39 milhões de barris por dia (Gráfico 1, linha preta).
Com uma produção recorde de petróleo bruto sendo ofertada, os estoques de petróleo bruto
podem estar em níveis mais baixos (Gráfico 1, linha vermelha). Com fortes exportações e menores
níveis de estoques de petróleo bruto, os preços do petróleo bruto WTI dos EUA terão apoio e
devem ficar acima de US $ 60 o barril.
Prior to 2014 crude oil produced in the US by federal law could not be exported. When the law was changed in mid-2014, US crude exports increased to about 0.5 million barrels per day. Starting in mid-2017 with increasing domestic shale production of crude oil, crude exports increased dramatically to 3.39 million barrels per day (Chart 1, black line). With record crude oil production for supply, crude stocks can be at lower levels (Chart 1, red line). With strong exports and lower levels of crude stocks, US WTI crude oil prices will be supported and can be expected to stay above $60 a barrel.
Commodity Market Update March 13, 2019
Last Friday the USDA released the March WASDE (World Agriculture Supply Demand Estimates)
report. The average estimate for soybeans ending stocks was 902 million bushels; the report
was at 900 million bushels (Chart 1, 2018 bar). The estimate was close to the actual, and the
data remain bearish to price, especially the stocks to use ratio of 21.9% (Chart 2, 2018 bar).
The average estimate for wheat ending stocks was 1.020 billion bushels; the report was at
1.055 billion bushels (Chart 3, 2018 bar). The report was bearish to price when compared to the
estimate, and yet the ending stocks have been declining for the last three years. However, the
stocks to use ratio remains bearish to price at 55.6% (Chart 4, 2018 bar).
Chart 4The average estimate for corn ending stocks was 1.736 billion bushels; the report was at 1.835
billion bushels (Chart 5, 2018 bar). The report was bearish to corn prices. However, the overall
data for corn are less bearish than soybeans or wheat. Ending stocks have been decreasing for
the last three years and the stocks to use ratio, 12.4%, (Chart 6, 2018 bar) is the lowest in the
last five years.
The calendar spread of NYMEX May Crude – NYMEX June Crude for the 2019 contracts has decreased from positive 60 cents last May (Chart 1, black line) to negative 39 cents as of March 5. These calendar spreads of consecutive months are often called “front-to-back” spreads. The value of the front-to-back spreads often is inversely correlated to crude stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma (Chart 2), the delivery point of the NYMEX crude oil contracts. As stocks increase at Cushing, there tends to be downward pressure on the front-to-back spreads. Cushing stocks have been increasing since last August, from 20 million barrels to 47.5 million barrels as of March 1 (Chart 2, red and black lines), and correspondingly the May-June Crude spread has been decreasing. See the Chart 3 scatterplot of this inverse relationship. Should the Cushing stocks continue to increase, as we expect, this will continue to pressure the front-to-back crude calendar spreads.