Carbon Market News Roundup

In the last issue, we explored developments in climate tech and investment, the geopolitical perspective on climate change, and some of the recent alarming news regarding rising sea temperatures. This issue, we focus on the race to net zero, the impact of AI power demand on climate change, and the escalating consequences of climate change.

The Race to Net Zero: A Daunting Yet Achievable Goal

The Brutal Economics of Reaching Net Zero

J.B. MacKinnon, Bloomberg

At the 28th annual United Nations Climate Change Conference, nearly 200 countries committed to achieving “net zero” by 2050. The goal is to limit global warming to around 1.5C, though even this will come at significant costs. To achieve net zero, we need to accept the challenge’s immense scale and urgency.

The timeline to reach net zero is just 26 years. The International Energy Agency (IEA) tracks over 550 clean-energy technologies and 400 milestones needed for this transition. Massive financial investments, estimated between $215 trillion and $275 trillion by 2050, are required. By 2030, key targets include tripling renewable energy output, especially solar and wind power. Electric vehicles (EVs) are a bright spot, with plans to scale up production and charging stations.

By working together and leveraging technological advancements, financial investments, and behavioral changes, we can tackle the climate crisis and strive for a sustainable future. Achieving net zero will determine the future livability of our planet.

Impact of AI Power Demand on Climate Goals

Can the US Power Industry Meet AI’s Steep Energy Demands?

Will Wade & Josh Saul, Bloomberg

AI Power Demand Might Actually Turn Out to Be Good for Climate

Josh Saul, Bloomberg

Delivering power to homes and companies has historically been a stable and predictable business. While the US population has been growing and electrifying more aspects of daily life, this increased power use has been offset by efficiency gains in buildings, factories, and appliances. However, the landscape is changing drastically as America now demands more electricity for factories, homes, electric vehicles, heating, data centers, and artificial intelligence. This surge in power demand is unparalleled in decades, resembling the growth seen during World War II. Utilities are struggling to keep up with this rapid increase, with estimates predicting a nearly 16% climb in power demand over the next five years. This growth is mainly driven by the electrification of the economy and the rise of data centers supporting AI.

Big energy companies argue that this surge in electricity demand could ultimately benefit the climate. Cam Hosie from SLB and Scott Strazik from GE Vernova claim that the rapid increase in power demand is a “blessing” for the energy transition, potentially driving investment and innovation in clean energy technologies. However, climate advocates like Laurie Williams from the Sierra Club view this increased demand as a threat to decarbonization. Rising power demand has already led to delays in coal plant retirements and an increase in natural gas-fired power plants, which typically have long lifespans.

The surge in power demand also presents a chance to break through political and permitting roadblocks that have historically stymied clean energy and transmission line development. The electrification of vehicles, for example, is still net positive for the environment, even if the power plants are fossil-fuel-based, due to the higher efficiency of large power plants compared to gas engines. Over the long run, the increased power demand may facilitate the shutdown of carbon-emitting generation plants.

Despite the optimistic outlook from energy executives, the reality is that the surge in power demand complicates the transition to clean energy. The new administration under President Trump, a fossil fuel advocate, is expected to roll back parts of the Democrats’ climate law and unwind many climate regulations. This may further delay the retirement of coal plants and promote fossil-fuel-based energy production.

The impact of AI on the power grid came on suddenly, and utilities are not fully prepared to handle the unprecedented load growth. In states like Georgia, power companies have significantly increased their demand forecasts, leading to decisions that may contradict their climate goals, such as keeping coal plants operational longer.

The debate over rising power demand highlights the complex interplay between the need for reliable energy and the urgency to transition to clean energy sources. While some argue that increased demand will drive the necessary investments and innovations, others worry it will entrench the fossil-fuel grid further. In the end, it remains to be seen whether this surge in power demand will be a catalyst for positive change or a setback for climate goals.

By working together and leveraging technological advancements, financial investments, and behavioral changes, we can tackle the climate crisis and strive for a sustainable future. Achieving net zero will determine the future livability of our planet.

The Escalating Consequences of Climate Change

What We Learned from the Hottest Year on Record

Eric Roston, Bloomberg

How Climate Change is Supercharging Disasters

David Gelles & Austyn Gaffney, The New York Times

In 2024, the global average temperature reached 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, signaling a critical failure to meet the long-term Paris Agreement goal of limiting global heating. Although one year above this threshold does not mean complete failure, it indicates a troubling trend towards more severe climate impacts. The implications of this rise are becoming increasingly evident through extreme weather events around the world, such as the devastating wildfires in Los Angeles.

The year 2024 being the hottest on record, surpassing 2023, highlights the ongoing acceleration of climate change. This increase in temperature is contributing to more frequent and intense extreme weather events, including record heatwaves, destructive storms, and unprecedented wildfires. For instance, Los Angeles, typically experiencing rain during January, faced a catastrophic wildfire fueled by drought conditions and higher-than-normal temperatures. Similarly, other regions have experienced unusual and severe weather patterns, such as cyclones in Appalachia and deadly heatwaves across various parts of the world.

The primary driver behind these phenomena is the continuous rise in greenhouse gas emissions. Despite efforts by some countries to reduce carbon pollution, global emissions have not yet peaked. The world still emits over 100 million tons of carbon dioxide each day. While natural factors like El Niño can influence annual temperature records, the predominant cause of the warming trend is human activity. In 2023, greenhouse gas emissions were responsible for almost 80% of the year’s heat record, with natural variability playing a minor role.

Furthermore, reductions in sulfur aerosol emissions, due to cleaner fuel regulations for shipping and efforts to reduce pollution in countries like China, have contributed to temporarily higher temperatures. While these measures benefit human health, they have also led to less atmospheric cooling, exacerbating the warming trend.

Scientists have also identified changes in cloud cover, particularly over the North Atlantic, as a factor contributing to the recent heat records. Reduced low-lying clouds mean more solar energy reaches the Earth’s surface, further accelerating warming. The reasons behind these changes are still under investigation, but they signal the potential for even faster warming than previously projected.

The political response to these events has been mixed. As scientists and climate activists emphasize the urgency of addressing climate change, some political leaders and influential figures downplay the severity of the issue. The recent wildfires in Los Angeles have sparked political debates, with accusations and misinformation further complicating efforts to address the root causes of climate change.

The announcement that 2024 was the hottest year on record is not surprising, given the continuous rise in global temperatures over the past decade. All 10 of the hottest years on record have occurred within the last decade, highlighting the urgent need for effective climate action. Despite this clear trend, global efforts to reduce emissions have stalled, with record amounts of planet-warming gases released into the atmosphere last year.

The inevitable result of inaction is more heat and more extreme weather events. Hurricanes, floods, and heatwaves are becoming more frequent and severe, affecting millions of people worldwide. The interconnected nature of these events means that no region is entirely safe from the impacts of climate change. Urban areas, often perceived as safe from natural forces, are also vulnerable to the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather.

In conclusion, the global temperature surpassing 1.5C above pre-industrial levels in 2024 is a clear indication that the world is failing to meet its climate goals. The escalating impacts of climate change, manifested in more intense and unpredictable extreme weather events, highlight the urgent need for comprehensive climate action. Reducing emissions and adapting to the changing climate are critical to mitigating the devastating effects of global warming and ensuring a sustainable future for all.