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Figure 1: Net amount of LNG exported from the US in thousands of metric tons
Let’s set the background for the discussion. The EU received more than 40% of its natural gas from Russia before the sanctions. This dropped to about 11% in 2024. (Hungary and Slovakia still get Russian gas.) It is understandable that this was a challenge for the EU, and it hasn’t gotten any easier to eliminate completely Russian gas, over Hungary’s and Slovakia’s objections. One way to evaluate the two scenarios would be to look at statements from different EU members. My preference is to look at what the EU members are actually doing; actions speak louder than words and tend to be more valuable in the long term.
Next, we take the various actions by country or the whole EU that support the “Phasing Down” scenario. The most notable one is that the entire EU has a detailed plan (EU/2022/1032) to eliminate all Russian energy, natural gas, oil, and nuclear energy, by 2027, as a part of moving to green energy (as part of the REPowerEU plan launched in 2022). In 2024, however, the EU still imported 52 billion cubic meters of Russian gas, prompting new measures that require each member state to submit national phase-out plans by the end of 2025. This must be considered as a serious move, since it is not simply a reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Another data point for this scenario is Germany’s construction of an LNG-receiving port. The port was planned immediately after the Nord Stream pipeline was sabotaged, so it might be considered as an attempt to increase natural gas from Russia from Yamal LNG plant. But the fact that the agreements being signed are with the US and EU (Norway) says otherwise. One more point for this scenario is Spain. It already imports 35% of its natural gas from the US. Spain clearly is not expecting to import more gas from Russia.
Now, let’s look at factors that might lean toward the “Opening the Taps” scenario. There are, as mentioned before, Hungary and Slovakia. They are very much Russia-aligned and have been customers of Russian gas for years. They, obviously, don’t want to buy more expensive gas from elsewhere. However, they are a small minority in the EU. There is one more factor that can’t be ignored. Donald Trump has nudged the EU toward buying Russian gas. Trump doesn’t always get what he pushes for, but whatever he enters becomes immediately more complicated. France and Germany have accepted to buy some Russian gas, but the EU mandate implies that this is a very short-term arrangement. If Trump can get a ceasefire, and it extends to a resolution of the conflict, we need to know what Russia’s capabilities are, and they are very large. Here is a map of gas pipelines from Russia to Europe.
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