{"id":9650,"date":"2025-07-21T10:33:27","date_gmt":"2025-07-21T14:33:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/?p=9650"},"modified":"2025-07-22T10:35:44","modified_gmt":"2025-07-22T14:35:44","slug":"grain-futures-struggle-under-global-surplus-pressure","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/es\/grain-futures-struggle-under-global-surplus-pressure\/","title":{"rendered":"Grain Futures Struggle Under Global Surplus Pressure"},"content":{"rendered":"<p align=\"center\">Grain futures held steady under pressure, facing a confluence of record U.S. corn acreage, abundant soybean and wheat yields, intensifying competition from Brazil, persistent Chinese import demand, and continued Black Sea export activity. Tariffs and GMO restrictions further reshaped global trade flows, adding friction to an already complex landscape.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: left;\" align=\"center\">Wheat<\/h3>\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>Depleted sales and new Russian strategy pressures Sep contracts<\/strong><\/p>\n<p align=\"center\">\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-9654\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-21-144840.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1274\" height=\"736\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-21-144840.png 1274w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-21-144840-300x173.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-21-144840-1024x592.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-21-144840-768x444.png 768w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-21-144840-18x10.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1274px) 100vw, 1274px\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Early\u2011season export business stayed brisk yet price tension lingered. Net sales of 494\u202fkt for the week to July\u202f10 kept cumulative bookings ahead of the prior four\u2011week average, and USDA raised hard\u2011red winter export projections; nevertheless, buyers continued to compare U.S. offers with cheaper Black\u2011Sea quotes, tempering futures gains.<\/li>\n<li>USDA\u2019s mid\u2011July updates reinforced a well\u2011supplied U.S. balance sheet.The July Crop\u202fProduction cut winter\u2011wheat output 3\u202f% from June but the Wheat Outlook nudged total production to 1.93\u202fbn\u202fbushel and lifted 2025\/26 export and ending\u2011stock forecasts<\/li>\n<li>Black\u2011Sea policy shifts leaned bearish.Moscow\u2019s decision to drop the wheat export tax to 0% and instruct ministries to accelerate shipments signaled an aggressive marketing campaign just as Russian harvest delays briefly tightened nearby supply\u2014adding fresh downward pressure to Chicago spreads.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Corn<\/h3>\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>Diminished corn sales driven by strong harvests in Brazil and oversupply concerns<\/strong><\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-9652\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-21-144929.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1265\" height=\"732\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-21-144929.png 1265w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-21-144929-300x174.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-21-144929-1024x593.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-21-144929-768x444.png 768w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-21-144929-18x10.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1265px) 100vw, 1265px\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Export momentum sagged as Brazil and others undercut U.S. offers. Net old\u2011crop sales collapsed to a marketing\u2011year\u2011low 97.6\u202fkt, while Brazil\u2019s near\u2011record safrinha harvest and cheaper FOB Santos values, coupled with China\u2019s shift toward Brazilian and Ukrainian corn, diverted demand away from the Gulf.<\/li>\n<li>Ethanol metrics offered limited price support. Plant output hovered around 1.08\u202fm\u202fbbl\u202f\u2044\u202fday, but fuel\u2011ethanol stocks rose to 23.6\u202fm\u202fbbl\u2014the highest mid\u2011July level in four years\u2014signaling ample domestic cover even as driving season peaks.<\/li>\n<li>Record acreage and top\u2011tier crop ratings sustain a heavy supply tone. USDA\u2019s July WASDE trimmed 2025\/26 U.S. corn ending stocks, yet 95.2\u202fM planted acres (+5\u202f%\u202fy\/y) and a 74\u202f% good\/excellent rating keep talk of trend\u2011beating yields and hold CBOT futures near contract lows.<\/li>\n<li>Policy moves overseas reinforce a bearish narrative. The EU\u2019s reinstated tariff\u2011rate quota caps duty\u2011free Ukrainian corn at just 650\u202fkt for the rest of 2025, while Mexico\u2019s constitutional ban on planting GM corn keeps trade friction with Washington alive\u2014both shifts likely to reroute competitively priced grain and weigh on U.S. export prospects.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Soybeans<\/h3>\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>Mixed signals from exports and field conditions<\/strong><\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-9653\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-21-144914.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1270\" height=\"743\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-21-144914.png 1270w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-21-144914-300x176.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-21-144914-1024x599.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-21-144914-768x449.png 768w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-21-144914-18x12.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1270px) 100vw, 1270px\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>U.S. export pace cooled. The most recent FAS report showed light old-crop sales and dispersed new-crop business; with major Chinese buying scarce and cheaper Brazilian barrels competing, board rallies struggled to gain traction.<\/li>\n<li>Brazilian supply and loadings undercut U.S. values. CONAB reaffirmed a record ~197 MMT crop while exporter line-ups pointed to roughly 11\u201313 MMT of July shipments, reinforcing aggressive FOB offers that analysts say are chipping away at U.S. share and pressuring CBOT spreads.<\/li>\n<li>USDA\u2019s July balance sheet turned modestly heavier, but fields remain broadly sound. The latest WASDE trimmed harvested area, held yield steady, lifted crush, pared exports and nudged 2025\/26 U.S. soybean ending stocks to ~310million bushel; national Crop Progress kept condition near 70% good\/excellent, muting weather premium.<\/li>\n<li>China\u2019s diversification and feed-ration policies temper long-run import growth. Beijing\u2019s push to lower soymeal inclusion rates, alongside new approval for Ethiopian soymeal imports, signals incremental demand shifts that cap bullish enthusiasm for U.S. beans.<\/li>\n<\/ul>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Grain futures held steady under pressure, facing a confluence of record U.S. corn acreage, abundant soybean and wheat yields, intensifying competition from Brazil, persistent Chinese import demand, and continued Black Sea export activity. Tariffs and GMO restrictions further reshaped global trade flows, adding friction to an already complex landscape. Wheat Depleted sales and new Russian [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9650","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9650","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9650"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9650\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9655,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9650\/revisions\/9655"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9650"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9650"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9650"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}