{"id":9788,"date":"2025-11-10T16:19:15","date_gmt":"2025-11-10T21:19:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/?p=9788"},"modified":"2025-11-26T16:42:44","modified_gmt":"2025-11-26T21:42:44","slug":"grains-weekly-global-supply-caps-wheat-corn-soybean-gains","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/es\/grains-weekly-global-supply-caps-wheat-corn-soybean-gains\/","title":{"rendered":"Grains Weekly | Global Supply Caps Wheat, Corn &#038; Soybean Gains"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Markets weighed ample global supplies, South American competition, and shifting Black Sea, Chinese, and MENA trade flows, leaving CBOT wheat, corn, and soybeans range-bound, largely event-driven, and capped by stocks.<\/p>\n<h2><span data-olk-copy-source=\"MessageBody\">Wheat<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><em>Wheat rallied but ample production squeezed prices lower<\/em><\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-9789\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-26-162230.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"756\" height=\"410\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-26-162230.png 756w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-26-162230-300x163.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-26-162230-18x10.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 756px) 100vw, 756px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>U.S. balance sheet remained weighty.<\/strong> USDA\u2019s recent Small Grains Summary and Grain Stocks still framed the market, with 2025 all-wheat production at 1.98 bn bushels and Sep-1 stocks at 2.12 bn bushels (+6% y\/y). Private surveys suggest winter-wheat seeding is around 90% complete with just-above-average ratings.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Export signals turned more supportive, but the market responded with a &#8216;sell-the-news&#8217; reaction.<\/strong> With official sales data still delayed, traders focused on inspections running at their strongest pace in nearly a decade and estimates of 250\u2013650 Kt weekly sales, plus China\u2019s first U.S. wheat purchase in a year.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Black Sea competition remained the dominant headwind.<\/strong> SovEcon again raised its 2025\/26 Russian wheat export forecast to roughly 43.7\u201343.8 MMT and pegged October shipments near 5.1\u20135.4 MMT, well above the five-year average, with November potentially at a record-high.<\/li>\n<li><strong>The global surplus narrative was reinforced by other exporters.<\/strong> EU wheat markets stayed subdued as analysts stressed \u201cample\u201d European supply and looming southern-hemisphere harvest pressure, while ABARES lifted Australia\u2019s 2025\/26 wheat forecast to 33.8 MMT, about 10% above its June estimate and well above the 10-year average.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><span data-olk-copy-source=\"MessageBody\">Corn<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><em>December contract moves mildly due to strengthened inventory<\/em><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-9791\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-26-163829.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"760\" height=\"435\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-26-163829.png 760w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-26-163829-300x172.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-26-163829-18x10.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 760px) 100vw, 760px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Heavy Northern Hemisphere supply kept Dec \u201925 corn range-bound.<\/strong> December 2025 CBOT corn traded essentially sideways, holding in roughly a $4.27\u2013$4.36\/bu band and oscillating around $4.30\/bu, with only modest net change despite decent intraday ranges. That price resilience sits on top of USDA projections for a record-large 2025 U.S. crop of about 16.8 billion bushels and earlier cuts to U.S. ending stocks driven by strong export and feed demand, combined with FAO forecasts of record world cereal production and expanding maize inventories.<\/li>\n<li><strong>South American crop prospects reinforced the expectation of intense export competition into 2026.<\/strong> Brazil entered the new marketing cycle with expectations for high corn output and exports, underpinned by decent early summer-crop planting progress, improving rains in the Center-South and South, and an already large export program that still needs heavy shipment pace into early 2026 to hit targets.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Black Sea and Ukrainian flows added local risk premium but didn\u2019t overturn the \u201cwell-supplied\u201d story.<\/strong> Ukrainian grain exports in the 2025\/26 season were running about 35% below the prior year by early November, with corn shipments only around one-third of last season\u2019s volume, underlining that war-related logistics constraints and infrastructure risk continue to suppress flows even as an alternative sea corridor has already moved tens of millions of tons of grain.<\/li>\n<li><strong>At the same time, Argentina\u2019s corn was reported at roughly one-third planted<\/strong> with close to 80% of the emerged crop rated good to excellent, signaling \u2013 weather permitting \u2013 another sizeable South American contribution to 2026 global supply rather than a squeeze.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><span data-olk-copy-source=\"MessageBody\">Soybeans<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><em>Soybeans soar on US-China agriculture deal, ex-US producers gain strength<\/em><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-9792\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-26-163945.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"743\" height=\"425\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-26-163945.png 743w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-26-163945-300x172.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-26-163945-18x10.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 743px) 100vw, 743px\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>U.S.-China trade d\u00e9tente repriced demand risk, but with clear limits.<\/strong> In the last days of October and the first week of November, the market rallied on headlines that Beijing and Washington had agreed to resume large-scale U.S. soybean purchases, with China signaling at least 12 MMT of U.S. imports in the near term and a target of roughly 25 MMT per year going forward, mainly via state buyer COFCO.<\/li>\n<li><strong>However, traders quickly focused on the fine print:<\/strong> a residual double-digit duty on U.S. imports and ongoing Section 301 leverage mean the truce is fragile, and China\u2019s commitments largely normalize trade back toward historic norms rather than creating truly new demand.<\/li>\n<li><strong>South American supply is fundamentally heavy, but early-season planting risks kept a weather premium in deferred months.<\/strong> Brazil\u2019s official supply agency Conab continues to project a record 2025\/26 soybean crop of around 177\u2013178 MMT, supported by another year of record acreage, while FAO and other agencies are simultaneously flagging record-high global cereal and feed-grain stocks for 2025\/26.<\/li>\n<li><strong>China\u2019s demand remains huge, but diversified sourcing and weak crusher margins constrained how much of that flows through U.S. futures.<\/strong> Fundamentally, China is still the dominant buyer, taking roughly 60% of globally traded soybeans in recent years, and before the trade war, it absorbed nearly a third of U.S. production in a typical marketing year. Yet by mid-2025, retaliatory tariffs and aggressive Brazilian expansion had shifted the center of gravity: Brazil has supplied about two-thirds of China\u2019s soybean imports, and U.S. new-crop export sales to China for 2025\/26 were effectively zero going into harvest.<\/li>\n<\/ul>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Markets weighed ample global supplies, South American competition, and shifting Black Sea, Chinese, and MENA trade flows, leaving CBOT wheat, corn, and soybeans range-bound, largely event-driven, and capped by stocks. Wheat Wheat rallied but ample production squeezed prices lower &nbsp; U.S. balance sheet remained weighty. USDA\u2019s recent Small Grains Summary and Grain Stocks still framed [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9788","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9788","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9788"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9788\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9793,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9788\/revisions\/9793"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9788"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9788"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9788"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}