{"id":9843,"date":"2025-12-22T14:30:41","date_gmt":"2025-12-22T19:30:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/?p=9843"},"modified":"2025-12-22T14:23:13","modified_gmt":"2025-12-22T19:23:13","slug":"big-crops-small-rallies-global-markets-under-supply-pressure","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/es\/big-crops-small-rallies-global-markets-under-supply-pressure\/","title":{"rendered":"Big Crops, Small Rallies: Global Grain Markets Under Supply Pressure"},"content":{"rendered":"

Futures capped: WASDE lifted supplies, Black Sea risk eased, South America stayed large. Soy tempered by veg-oil weakness; wheat demand favored non-U.S. origins; corn supported by stronger exports and ethanol.<\/em><\/p>\n

Wheat<\/span><\/h2>\n

Average weekly Wheat exports\u00a0lifted (+30.7% accumulative since 2023) for second consecutive year\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

    \n
  • WASDE lifted the ceiling:<\/strong> Global 2025\/26 wheat supplies and ending stocks were revised higher on record crops in Canada\/Argentina\/EU\/Australia\/Russia, capping front-month rallies.<\/li>\n
  • Risk premium faded:<\/strong>\u00a0Ample Black Sea\/EU offers and chatter around Ukraine ceasefire talks nudged Chicago to fresh lows despite ongoing war logistics risks.<\/li>\n
  • MENA demand bifurcated:<\/strong>\u00a0Algeria accelerated tenders at ~$255\u2013$256 C&F while Egypt\u2019s procurement turmoil kept volumes uneven, shifting business toward non-U.S. origins.<\/li>\n
  • U.S. balance steady, exports grinding forward:<\/strong>\u00a0No winterkill concerns, softer dollar aided competitiveness, and commitments reached ~74% of USDA\u2019s export target, which was supportive but not bull-making.<\/li>\n
  • Data flow still messy:<\/strong>\u00a0Delayed USDA export-sales releases from the shutdown kept traders headline-driven, reinforcing a sell-the-rally, buy-support range for the front month.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Corn<\/span><\/h2>\n

    Corn exports doubled in November, as shipment pace strengthens<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/p>\n

      \n
    • USDA\u2019s December update boosted corn exports and trimmed carryout<\/strong>\u2014front-month found support from a stronger shipment pace.<\/li>\n
    • South America stayed \u201cbig\u201d:<\/strong>\u00a0CONAB made only minor tweaks to Brazil\u2019s crop, while Argentina\u2019s planting\/conditions advanced\u2014competition capped rallies.<\/li>\n
    • Ukraine flows steadied risk premia:<\/strong>\u00a0The maritime corridor kept moving near-100 Mt of grain as early-December corn exports accelerated.<\/li>\n
    • Domestic demand held up:<\/strong>\u00a0EIA reported record weekly ethanol output, cushioning dips in futures.<\/li>\n
    • Data fog lingered:<\/strong>\u00a0USDA\u2019s shutdown-delayed export-sales reports kept trade headline-driven and reliant on inspections.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Soybeans<\/span><\/h2>\n

      US soybeans exports plummeted after two strong years as competition squeezes US dominance<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

      \"\"<\/p>\n

        \n
      • WASDE nudged the balance heavier:<\/strong> Global 2025\/26 soy production and ending stocks rose, tempering front-month rallies.<\/li>\n
      • Brazil\u2019s crop advanced with only a minor trim:\u00a0Planting neared completion, and Conab shaved output slightly\u2014still a record\u2014while early-December rains eased weather risk.<\/li>\n
      • China demand supportive but measured:<\/strong>\u00a0State buyers booked sizable U.S. volumes while reserve auctions rotated stocks, keeping crush running without igniting a sustained bid.<\/li>\n
      • Veg-oil complex leaned bearish for beans:<\/strong>\u00a0Cheaper palm pulled offtake from soyoil, and NOPA showed higher U.S. soyoil stocks\u2014pressuring the oil leg and capping the complex.<\/li>\n
      • Policy\/geopolitics reduced near-term risk premia:<\/strong>\u00a0EU\u2019s deforestation-law delay eased compliance pressure for soy flows, while U.S. export-sales report backlogs kept trading headline-driven.<\/li>\n<\/ul>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        Futures capped: WASDE lifted supplies, Black Sea risk eased, South America stayed large. Soy tempered by veg-oil weakness; wheat demand favored non-U.S. origins; corn supported by stronger exports and ethanol. Wheat Average weekly Wheat exports\u00a0lifted (+30.7% accumulative since 2023) for second consecutive year\u00a0 WASDE lifted the ceiling: Global 2025\/26 wheat supplies and ending stocks were […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9843","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9843","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9843"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9843\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9847,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9843\/revisions\/9847"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9843"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9843"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9843"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}