{"id":9874,"date":"2025-12-29T14:25:49","date_gmt":"2025-12-29T19:25:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/?p=9874"},"modified":"2026-01-23T14:35:50","modified_gmt":"2026-01-23T19:35:50","slug":"oil-gas-gasoline-capped-by-supply-and-soft-demand","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/es\/oil-gas-gasoline-capped-by-supply-and-soft-demand\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil, Gas & Gasoline Capped by Supply and Soft Demand"},"content":{"rendered":"

WTI, RBOB, and Henry Hub Natural Gas stayed range-bound: product builds, resilient U.S. supply, softer demand, and easing risks offset crude draws and LNG strength, while thin holiday trading kept spikes short-lived.<\/em><\/p>\n

Crude Oil<\/span><\/h2>\n

WTI trades in $55-$60 range as drilling dominates<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

    \n
  • U.S. data leaned soft on products:<\/strong> EIA showed a crude draw (-1.3 mb) but gasoline (+4.8 mb) and distillate (+1.7 mb) built with high runs (~95%), muting front-month rallies.<\/li>\n
  • Supply still heavy despite tweaks:<\/strong> U.S. output hovered near 13.84 mb\/d while rigs ticked up; OPEC+ kept Q1 policy steady, and the IEA still flags a 2026 surplus (trimmed, not gone).<\/li>\n
  • Geopolitical flare-ups added brief risk premia:<\/strong> Kazakhstan\u2019s CPC exports slumped after terminal damage; Iran seized a tanker in Hormuz\u2014creating headline spikes, but limited lasting impact on WTI.<\/li>\n
  • Thin holiday trade, modest bounce:<\/strong> WTI rebounded from mid-month lows into the high $50s as desks faded API builds and weighed Venezuela\/Russia headlines.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Gasoline<\/h2>\n

    Gasoline futures have lost more than -20% since September<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

    <\/p>\n

      \n
    • Stocks built even as runs stayed high:<\/strong>\u00a0<\/span>Gasoline rose by +4.8 mb; finished gasoline declined, while blending components increased. Refinery utilization held near 94.8%. Front-month futures initially rallied but later eased as supply levels appeared adequate.<\/li>\n
    • Holiday driving didn\u2019t translate into a boom:<\/strong>\u00a0AAA flagged record travelers, yet 4-week gasoline supplied ran ~1.1% below y\/y, softening cracks.<\/li>\n
    • Light-ends weakened abroad:<\/strong>\u00a0Europe\u2019s gasoline cracks slid into year-end, dulling trans-Atlantic pull and weighing on RBOB.<\/li>\n
    • Freight risk eased:<\/strong>\u00a0Select CMA CGM transits through Suez signaled tentative Red Sea normalization, trimming logistics premia.<\/li>\n
    • Supply stayed ample:<\/strong>\u00a0U.S. gasoline output ~9.6 mb\/d with imports near 0.8 mb\/d, keeping barrels available despite refinery maintenance chatter.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Natural Gas<\/span><\/h2>\n

      Natural gas prices rose as exports boosted storage<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

      <\/p>\n

        \n
      • Big withdrawal, still-comfortable stocks:<\/strong> EIA reported a 167 Bcf draw; inventories sat ~1% above the 5-year average\u2014supportive, but not tight enough to unleash a breakout.<\/li>\n
      • Exports firm after brief hiccup:<\/strong> 33 U.S. LNG cargoes departed, and feedgas stayed robust, though a Freeport LNG trip briefly interrupted flows.<\/li>\n
      • Supply resilience showed up in basis:<\/strong> Waha\u2019s discount narrowed after pipeline maintenance ended; gas rigs ~127 kept upstream pressure intact.<\/li>\n
      • Weather mixed the signals:<\/strong> Early cold boosted withdrawals, but late-week South warmth softened res\/com demand\u2014muting front-month momentum.<\/li>\n
      • Global cues leaned soft:<\/strong> TTF hovered <\u20ac30\/MWh, dulling the Atlantic pull; Russian LNG delays add long-term uncertainty more than near-term support.<\/li>\n<\/ul>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        WTI, RBOB, and Henry Hub Natural Gas stayed range-bound: product builds, resilient U.S. supply, softer demand, and easing risks offset crude draws and LNG strength, while thin holiday trading kept spikes short-lived. Crude Oil WTI trades in $55-$60 range as drilling dominates U.S. data leaned soft on products: EIA showed a crude draw (-1.3 mb) […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9874","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9874","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9874"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9874\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9877,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9874\/revisions\/9877"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9874"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9874"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9874"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}