EIA Insights July 26, 2018

EIA Insights July 26, 2018

Injection Again Well Below Expectations

The EIA reported a 24 bcf Injection for the week ending July 20, 2018. The injection was near the lowest for this week of the year, and well below the average of expectations at a 35 bcf injection, with a range of a 23 injection to a 47 bcf injection. Storage is now over 700 bcf below last year at this time, and heading for record low Storage levels.

The 24 bcf injection was 11 bcf below the computer weather model estimate, indicating that again demand was greater than supply

Prices rose only 2.0 cents when the report was released, and then fell back ending the day essentially unchanged at $2.776.

Despite the bullish report, the price move was not bullish. The market prices are choppy at the current lower level of prices. A return to the $2.85 – $2.86 level would indicate an uptrend in prices. As we have mentioned before, we would not recommend going short in this market, but to wait for an established upper trend in prices before trading from the long side of prices, as the fundamentals of supply and demand remain bullish.

For further information contact joel.fingerman@fundamentalanalytics.com