Energy and Grain Prices Spiking Amid War in Ukraine

Energy and Grain Prices Spiking Amid War in Ukraine
March 4, 2022
There is little doubt that the unfolding geopolitical crisis in Ukraine is contributing to a dramatic increase in energy and agriculture prices (see charts below). The conflict also serves as a multiplying factor for several sector-specific developments in these markets from both the supply and demand sides, amplifying structural changes. The upward trend could indicate that such a structural change is in the making.
The charts below can be constructed in the Fundamental Analytics platform.
CBOT Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat Front Month Futures, Feb 2022
ICE Brent Crude Oil Front Month Futures, Feb 2022

The backwardation of energy and grains markets has become more severe as the crisis unfolded, as shown in the charts below. This will have implications for traders as front month contracts may continue to outpace longer-duration futures in their climb upwards.

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ICE Brent Crude Oil Forward Curves from January, February, and March
CBOT Corn Forward Curves from January, February, and March
CBOT Wheat Forward Curves from January, February, and March

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The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered individualized investment advice. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions.