{"id":9064,"date":"2024-04-15T14:21:52","date_gmt":"2024-04-15T18:21:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/?p=9064"},"modified":"2024-04-16T14:28:17","modified_gmt":"2024-04-16T18:28:17","slug":"fear-reaches-new-level","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/fear-reaches-new-level\/","title":{"rendered":"Fear Reaches New Level"},"content":{"rendered":"<p align=\"center\">April 15, 2024<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><em>Energy commodities endure significant pressure from geopolitical intensification along with changes in fundamentals.<\/em><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h3>Crude Oil<\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Speculators see upswing opportunity, placing their bets<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"image_content aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/files.constantcontact.com\/cdf199da001\/439b80a7-d62d-4b3e-8988-f4de69d101ee.png?rdr=true\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" data-image-content=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>WTI crude futures rose toward $86 per barrel during last week\u2019s session, closing in on the highest level since October 20th as the prospect of a wider conflict in the Middle East continued to stoke fears of further supply disruptions.<\/li>\n<li>WTI soared +3% over the last two weeks, while analysts anticipate the upswing to remain strong in the short term.<\/li>\n<li>On the demand side, strong US inflation data dampened hopes of early interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, potentially hurting the outlook for energy demand.<\/li>\n<li>Examining the latest EIA data, the current cumulative crude oil production is 7.2% stronger than the same period last year. Inventory increase (when comparing 2024 with 2023) is lower by 6 million bpd (24.9m bpd vs 30.9 bpd).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Corn<\/h3>\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>Gasoline demand is growing<\/strong><\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"image_content\" src=\"https:\/\/files.constantcontact.com\/cdf199da001\/d8eeb9b9-b273-4695-a1b3-b918673ce907.png?rdr=true\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" data-image-content=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Gasoline futures in the US rose above $2.80, tracking other oil-derived fuels to their highest in one year, as concerns of escalated warfare in the Middle East rose.<\/li>\n<li>Implied demand minus product supplied as calculated from EIA data shows an increased demand for gasoline (12.5m bpd vs 11.8 bpd, or +5.4% on y\/y basis), compared to 2024 (using YTD data) with the same period the previous year.<\/li>\n<li>The latest EIA report showed that gasoline stocks rose by over 700 thousand barrels on the week ending April 5th, surprising markets that expected a 1.32 million barrel draw, and in line with a sharper-than-expected build in crude oil stocks.<\/li>\n<li>Also limiting the increase, the total product supplied for motor fuel in the period fell by 624 thousand barrels to 8,612 million, pointing to a drop in US demand.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Natural Gas<\/h3>\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>LNG seems undervalued compared to crude oil<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"image_content\" src=\"https:\/\/files.constantcontact.com\/cdf199da001\/5fa8fb61-b26e-4eb4-9527-2270e23f1ecf.png?rdr=true\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" data-image-content=\"\" \/><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>US natural gas futures fell to $1.8\/MMBtu, after touching one-month highs early in the week, amid forecasts for lower demand and a bigger-than-expected rise in natural gas inventories in the US.<\/li>\n<li>The equivalent crude-to-LNG ratio remains at historical high levels, supporting unilaterally by crude oil price appreciation.<\/li>\n<li>EIA data showed an inventory build of 24 billion cubic feet last week, almost double the market forecasts.<\/li>\n<li>It\u2019s noteworthy to be mentioned that during Q1 2024 the LNG storage decreased by 1,193 Bcf while the same period one year before the storage was strengthened by 1,855 Bcf.<\/li>\n<li>Also, the working natural gas inventories ended the winter heating season (that ended on March 31<sup>st<\/sup>) at 2,290 billion cubic feet, 39% higher than the previous five-year average, due to mild weather, low natural gas consumption, and high natural gas production.<\/li>\n<li>Meanwhile, the amount of gas flowing to the Freeport LNG export facility in Texas is expected to fall to near zero, after one of the plant&#8217;s three trains tripped.<\/li>\n<\/ul>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>April 15, 2024 Energy commodities endure significant pressure from geopolitical intensification along with changes in fundamentals. Crude Oil Speculators see upswing opportunity, placing their bets WTI crude futures rose toward $86 per barrel during last week\u2019s session, closing in on the highest level since October 20th as the prospect of a wider conflict in the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9064","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9064","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9064"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9064\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9065,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9064\/revisions\/9065"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9064"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9064"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9064"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}