{"id":9632,"date":"2025-06-30T14:37:23","date_gmt":"2025-06-30T18:37:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/?p=9632"},"modified":"2025-06-30T14:37:23","modified_gmt":"2025-06-30T18:37:23","slug":"energy-tug-of-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/energy-tug-of-war\/","title":{"rendered":"Energy Tug-of-War"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n
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Energy prices wrestled with mixed signals: sharp U.S. crude draws and holiday travel demand collided with looming OPEC+ supply hikes, refinery outages, ballooning gasoline stocks, LNG maintenance, and well-supplied European storage.<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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Crude Oil<\/p>\n

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De-escalation in the Middle East and expectations of lower demand slash WTI prices following recent rally<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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  • U.S. draws tightened the near-term balance.\u00a0The EIA reported an 11.5 million-barrel crude draw for the week ending June 13, followed by a 5.8 million-barrel drop the next week\u2014despite refineries running near 95% utilization\u2014signaling firm domestic demand as driving season ramps up.<\/li>\n
  • Looming OPEC+ barrels capped rallies.\u00a0Delegates indicated a 411,000 bpd supply increase for August, while U.S. oil rigs fell to 438 (June 20), reinforcing expectations of a softer H2 market even amid tighter inventories.<\/li>\n
  • Hormuz incident revived security premium.\u00a0A collision and electronic jamming near the Strait of Hormuz\u2014gateway for ~20% of global crude\u2014briefly lifted WTI prices before diplomatic efforts calmed tensions.<\/li>\n
  • IEA trimmed global demand outlook.\u00a0Its mid-June report cut the 2025 forecast to 720,000 bpd growth, citing China\u2019s approaching consumption peak and supporting the \u201cwell-supplied\u201d narrative.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Gasoline<\/p>\n

    Gasoline prices revert as production soars more than expected<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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    • Inventories flipped from flat to tight.\u00a0The EIA reported a small 0.2 million-barrel build followed by a 2.1 million-barrel draw, pushing gasoline stocks 3% below the five-year average despite near-record refinery runs.<\/li>\n
    • Holiday travel lifted demand.\u00a0AAA projected a record 72 million Americans traveling over the Independence Day period, while four-week gasoline supplied rose to ~9.1 million bpd\u2014slightly above 2023 levels.<\/li>\n
    • Regional outages raised supply concerns.\u00a0California regulators flagged potential Bay Area refinery closures, while a major blackout halted Venezuela\u2019s second-largest refinery\u2014both cutting potential import volumes and adding a risk premium.<\/li>\n
    • Strong runs met soft margins.\u00a0U.S. gasoline production held near 10 million bpd, but global refining margins eased from May peaks, limiting upside for NYMEX RBOB despite healthy summer-grade output.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Natural Gas<\/p>\n

      Natural gas futures partially\u00a0rebound<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
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      • Storage builds remained strong.\u00a0Weekly EIA reports showed injections of 109 Bcf and 96 Bcf\u2014both above the five-year norm\u2014lifting total U.S. storage to 2.9 Tcf and reinforcing surplus conditions.<\/li>\n
      • LNG maintenance hit feedgas demand.\u00a0Outages at Sabine Pass and Cameron pushed U.S. LNG intake down 7% w\/w to 13.3 Bcf\/d\u2014the lowest since mid-December\u2014reducing a key outlet for domestic supply.<\/li>\n
      • Heat-driven power burn offered modest support.\u00a0A major heat dome drove PJM and ISO-NE electricity demand to multi-year highs, but gas-fired generation gains couldn\u2019t fully offset weak LNG flows and ample storage.<\/li>\n
      • European storage tempered export hopes.\u00a0EU stockpiles surpassed 25 bcm, and policymakers relaxed the 90% fill deadline, signaling sufficient winter cover and dampening prospects for strong late-summer U.S. LNG exports.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        Energy prices wrestled with mixed signals: sharp U.S. crude draws and holiday travel demand collided with looming OPEC+ supply hikes, refinery outages, ballooning gasoline stocks, LNG maintenance, and well-supplied European storage. Crude Oil De-escalation in the Middle East and expectations of lower demand slash WTI prices following recent rally U.S. draws tightened the near-term balance.\u00a0The […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9632","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9632","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9632"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9632\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9633,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9632\/revisions\/9633"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9632"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9632"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9632"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}