{"id":9740,"date":"2025-09-23T15:56:47","date_gmt":"2025-09-23T19:56:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/?p=9740"},"modified":"2025-09-26T09:39:39","modified_gmt":"2025-09-26T13:39:39","slug":"grains-weekly-abundant-supply-subdued-futures","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/grains-weekly-abundant-supply-subdued-futures\/","title":{"rendered":"Grains Weekly | Abundant Supply, Subdued Futures"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span data-olk-copy-source=\"MessageBody\">CBOT grains flattened as U.S. wheat harvest\/planting advanced, soybeans balanced heavier, and record corn output loomed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #ff9900;\">Wheat<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><em>Wheat futures struggle, despite steady exports<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/files.constantcontact.com\/cdf199da001\/ec717bc2-3d73-4908-bf55-5a014f6862d8.png?rdr=true\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>U.S. harvest\/planting kept nearby supply comfortable.<\/strong> Crop Progress showed spring-wheat cutting advancing from the mid-80s to the mid-90s percent range while 2026 winter-wheat seeding ramped up, limiting carry in December spreads.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Export demand is steady but unspectacular.<\/strong>\u00a0USDA\u2019s weekly report logged 377.5 Kt in net sales and 774.8 Kt shipped, decent volumes yet below recent averages\u2014supportive for basis but not enough to drive a board breakout.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Europe\/Black Sea competition weighed.<\/strong>\u00a0Euronext softened as a firmer euro and cheaper Russian offers eroded EU export hopes, while FranceAgriMer flagged lower protein shares in the new French crop, complicating milling premiums and inter-origin spreads.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Geopolitics and global demand signals cut two ways.<\/strong> Odesa-region drone strikes kept corridor risk in headlines, but India\u2019s government stocks swelling to a four-year high reduced near-term import prospects, netting to a muted risk premium in December CBOT.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff9900;\"><strong>Corn<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><em>Corn exports elevated, prices reach 2-month high<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/files.constantcontact.com\/cdf199da001\/239e6cbf-e227-4c56-b5e7-e1fc3c409ade.png?rdr=true\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Heavy U.S. supply narrative persisted.<\/strong>\u00a0September WASDE projected a record U.S. corn crop (~16.8 billion bushels), while Crop Progress kept conditions in the high-60% good\/excellent and harvest just starting, limiting weather premia in Dec.<\/li>\n<li><strong>New-crop export bookings improved, but not decisively.<\/strong>\u00a0Weekly FAS tallied ~1.23 MMT of 2025\/26 sales (week ended Sept 11) and brisk shipments, offering support yet failing to shift overall bearish sentiment for December futures.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Brazilian competition stayed formidable.<\/strong>\u00a0ANEC lifted September corn-export guidance to ~7.1 MMT, extending South America\u2019s price advantage and pressuring U.S. Gulf offers and CBOT spreads.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Domestic demand remains steady, geopolitics mostly neutral.<\/strong>\u00a0EIA-tracked ethanol metrics showed demand is steady while production slipped w\/w, and EU tariff resets mainly targeted wheat\/barley, leaving corn flows largely unaffected during the window.<\/li>\n<li><strong style=\"color: #ff9900; font-size: 16px;\">Soybeans<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em><strong>Exports strengthened, futures range 10.3-10.5<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/files.constantcontact.com\/cdf199da001\/2e6f8f21-b660-4fa2-a956-b71542ebc353.png?rdr=true\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span data-olk-copy-source=\"MessageBody\"><strong>U.S. balance sheet tilted heavier as fields held up.<\/strong>\u00a0<\/span>September WASDE nudged 2025\/26 U.S. soybean ending stocks higher while production was raised; mid-month Crop Progress kept conditions in the mid-60s % good\/excellent, muting weather premia in Nov futures.<\/li>\n<li><strong>New-crop export sales improved, but China remained scarce.<\/strong>\u00a0USDA tallied 541 Kt of week-one sales, then 923 Kt the next week, led by Europe and Mexico; Reuters noted Chinese buyers were still leaning heavily on South America.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Brazilian flow undercut U.S. offers.<\/strong>\u00a0ANEC lifted its September soybean export projection toward ~7.5 MMT, reinforcing aggressive FOB Paranagu\u00e1 values and weighing on Chicago spreads during the window.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Policy signals added background noise without curbing supply.<\/strong>\u00a0Brazil\u2019s competition authority ordered a suspension of the industry\u2019s \u201csoy moratorium,\u201d injecting ESG\/policy uncertainty even as export programs proceeded apace.<\/li>\n<\/ul>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>CBOT grains flattened as U.S. wheat harvest\/planting advanced, soybeans balanced heavier, and record corn output loomed. Wheat Wheat futures struggle, despite steady exports &nbsp; U.S. harvest\/planting kept nearby supply comfortable. Crop Progress showed spring-wheat cutting advancing from the mid-80s to the mid-90s percent range while 2026 winter-wheat seeding ramped up, limiting carry in December spreads. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9740","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9740","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9740"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9740\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9741,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9740\/revisions\/9741"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9740"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9740"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9740"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}