{"id":9756,"date":"2025-09-29T09:54:39","date_gmt":"2025-09-29T13:54:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/?p=9756"},"modified":"2025-10-14T09:56:33","modified_gmt":"2025-10-14T13:56:33","slug":"energy-weekly-draws-vs-surplus-crude-steadies-gasoline-tightens-natgas-lags","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/energy-weekly-draws-vs-surplus-crude-steadies-gasoline-tightens-natgas-lags\/","title":{"rendered":"Energy Weekly | Draws vs Surplus:  Crude Steadies, Gasoline Tightens, NatGas Lags"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span data-olk-copy-source=\"MessageBody\">Energy futures mixed: WTI steadied on U.S. draws but was capped by surplus outlook; RBOB tightened yet was constrained by demand and winter shift; natural gas was pressured by storage and muted LNG.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span data-olk-copy-source=\"MessageBody\">Crude Oil<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><em>US average Net Imports plummeted more than 40% y\/y in September<\/em><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/files.constantcontact.com\/cdf199da001\/dbed7fed-ed4b-4ef5-ba8a-d6c1281a9bb8.png?rdr=true\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span data-olk-copy-source=\"MessageBody\">U.S. balances tightened, then eased modestly.<\/span>\u00a0Mid-September EIA data showed a much larger-than-expected crude draw alongside firm exports; the following week posted a small draw with refineries near 93% and gasoline\/distillate stocks lower\u2014supportive but not explosive for WTI.<\/li>\n<li>Global supply expectations stayed bearish-tilted.\u00a0The IEA\u2019s September report projected robust 2025 supply growth from both non-OPEC+ and OPEC+ producers, reinforcing a narrative of ample barrels that tempered rally attempts.<\/li>\n<li>Shale signals implied only a gradual response.\u00a0Baker Hughes counts indicated a small uptick in U.S. oil rigs through September, suggesting incremental future supply additions.<\/li>\n<li>Geopolitics added flickers of risk premium.\u00a0Reports of Ukrainian drone strikes impacting Russian fuel output and talk of Kurdish flows resuming to Ceyhan injected headline volatility, but disruptions were not large enough to reprice the broader supply outlook.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><span data-olk-copy-source=\"MessageBody\">Gasoline<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><em>US struggles to strengthen Gasoline exports<\/em><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/files.constantcontact.com\/cdf199da001\/59518085-ddee-4064-b822-5d9620efb35a.png?rdr=true\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span data-olk-copy-source=\"MessageBody\">Stocks tightened, but demand remained steady<\/span>.\u00a0EIA reported back-to-back U.S. gasoline draws (-2.3 mb, then -1.1 mb), leaving inventories ~1\u20132% under the five-year norm while the 4-week \u201cproduct supplied\u201d hovered ~8.8\u20138.9 mb\/d.<\/li>\n<li>Runs high; imports cushioned the East Coast.\u00a0Refineries operated near 93% with gasoline output rising from ~9.4 to ~9.7 mb\/d; gasoline (and components) imports averaged ~0.51\u20130.57 mb\/d\u2014an adequate supply that tempered RBOB rallies.<\/li>\n<li>Seasonal spec shift leaned bearish.\u00a0The mid-September transition to winter-blend gasoline\u2014cheaper to produce and more flexible on RVP\u2014kicked in, historically easing wholesale costs and softening crack spreads.<\/li>\n<li>Weather\/geopolitics added little net premium.\u00a0Atlantic activity stayed mostly offshore (e.g., Hurricane Gabrielle near Bermuda), and with U.S. refining largely unaffected, headline risk didn\u2019t translate into sustained NYH tightness.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><span data-olk-copy-source=\"MessageBody\">Natural Gas<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><em>Speculators&#8217; funds indicate bearish cycle for Natural Gas<\/em><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/files.constantcontact.com\/cdf199da001\/f2536b1d-d9c6-4b62-be19-9f143483e26c.png?rdr=true\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span data-olk-copy-source=\"MessageBody\">Storage surplus capped rallies.<\/span>\u00a0EIA reported a +75 Bcf injection, lifting working gas to 3,508 Bcf (+6% vs 5-yr avg)\u2014a comfortable cushion that kept NYMEX gains in check.<\/li>\n<li>Supply sturdy; LNG pull mixed.\u00a0Dry output held near ~106\u2013107 Bcf\/d, while LNG feed-gas averaged ~16.3 Bcf\/d; Cove Point maintenance and a Sabine Pass intake dip tempered overall receipts.<\/li>\n<li>Power burn firmed only modestly.\u00a0Late-September warmth lifted gas-fired generation ~4% w\/w, but the uptick wasn\u2019t enough to overcome ample inventories and steady production.<\/li>\n<li>External demand signals stayed soft.\u00a0Europe\u2019s storage remained very high (EU above mandated thresholds; Poland at 100%), limiting urgency for U.S. LNG cargoes and reinforcing a bearish tilt.<\/li>\n<\/ul>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Energy futures mixed: WTI steadied on U.S. draws but was capped by surplus outlook; RBOB tightened yet was constrained by demand and winter shift; natural gas was pressured by storage and muted LNG. Crude Oil US average Net Imports plummeted more than 40% y\/y in September U.S. balances tightened, then eased modestly.\u00a0Mid-September EIA data showed [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9756","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9756","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9756"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9756\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9757,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9756\/revisions\/9757"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9756"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9756"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9756"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}