{"id":9768,"date":"2025-10-27T15:00:18","date_gmt":"2025-10-27T19:00:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/?p=9768"},"modified":"2025-10-30T15:00:43","modified_gmt":"2025-10-30T19:00:43","slug":"grains-weekly-harvest-advances-export-edge-fades","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/grains-weekly-harvest-advances-export-edge-fades\/","title":{"rendered":"Grains Weekly | Harvest Advances, Export Edge Fades"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span data-olk-copy-source=\"MessageBody\">U.S. grain markets softened as harvest progress, paused government reporting, and global competition\u2014especially from the Black Sea and Brazil\u2014outweighed supportive factors like ethanol demand and soybean crush strength.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span data-olk-copy-source=\"MessageBody\">Wheat<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><em>December futures nearly -14% YTD, demand flattens<\/em><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/files.constantcontact.com\/cdf199da001\/94437471-5961-467a-bf58-4fb1ba2d19e0.png?rdr=true\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span data-olk-copy-source=\"MessageBody\"><strong>Data pause kept U.S. supply perceptions heavy.<\/strong>\u00a0<\/span>With official Export Sales and Crop Progress paused due to the U.S. government shutdown, traders leaned on private estimates (winter-wheat planting ~75%) while September reports still loomed large: all-wheat output ~1.98B bushels and Sept-1 stocks 2.12B bushels (+6% y\/y) gave a soft backdrop for December CBOT.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Black Sea pricing remained the key headwind.<\/strong>\u00a0Moscow cut its floating export duty, and market reports pointed to exports re-accelerating after a slow start\u2014signals of aggressive offers that continued to cap Chicago rallies.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Import demand skewed toward Europe.<\/strong>\u00a0Egypt\u2019s state buyer and private firms added French and other EU\/Black Sea cargoes, reinforcing non-U.S. dominance in Near East tenders and tempering any U.S. basis or spread strength.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Southern Hemisphere supply prospects improved.<\/strong>\u00a0Australia\u2019s outlook lifted toward near-record levels as Western Australia\u2019s harvest began and analysts nudged national estimates higher, foreshadowing additional export competition into Q4 and pressuring deferred CBOT pricing.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><span data-olk-copy-source=\"MessageBody\">Corn<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><em>Front month Corn futures decreased more than 5% during 2025, exports remain weak<\/em><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/files.constantcontact.com\/cdf199da001\/84aff352-5030-4247-bcb8-302dadb7af76.png?rdr=true\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span data-olk-copy-source=\"MessageBody\"><strong>Harvest advanced under a data blackout, reinforcing a heavy supply tone.<\/strong>\u00a0<\/span>With USDA\u2019s Crop Progress and Export Sales paused, private surveys pegged U.S. corn harvest near the upper-50s percent\u2014enough momentum to limit weather-risk premia in December futures.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Export visibility stayed murky while Brazil undercut offers.<\/strong>\u00a0The reporting pause clouded near-term demand reads; meanwhile, Brazil\u2019s shippers guided October corn exports around 5.8\u20136.3 MMT, keeping FOB Santos competitive versus the U.S. Gulf despite prior U.S. sales to Mexico.<\/li>\n<li><strong>River logistics constrained Gulf competitiveness.<\/strong>\u00a0Persistently low Mississippi\/Ohio levels lifted barge costs and restricted drafts, softening CIF basis and muting export arbitrage just as new-crop supplies were hitting the pipeline.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Ethanol metrics offered only modest support.<\/strong>\u00a0Mid-October EIA data showed plant output rising toward ~1.11 million bushels\/day with inventories edging down; record-pace ethanol exports year-to-date helped at the margin but didn\u2019t alter the broader bearish backdrop.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><span data-olk-copy-source=\"MessageBody\">Soybeans<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span data-olk-copy-source=\"MessageBody\">Jan\u2019 26 contracts managed to modestly outperform (+2.3%) since the start of 2025<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/files.constantcontact.com\/cdf199da001\/7d3e25bd-5143-4834-a144-ff9c80b2272b.png?rdr=true\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span data-olk-copy-source=\"MessageBody\"><strong>U.S. harvest pace and the data void kept a lid on risk premia.<\/strong>\u00a0<\/span>With official reports paused, private surveys pegged soybean harvest around the low-to-mid-70s percent, reinforcing a broadly comfortable domestic supply backdrop for Jan \u201926.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Record-strong crush offered support\u2014but not a trend change.<\/strong>\u00a0NOPA\u2019s September run surged to ~198M bushels, a new monthly record, underpinning meal\/oil demand even as futures struggled amid export headwinds.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Export competitiveness favored Brazil as China sidelined U.S. beans.<\/strong>\u00a0China reportedly took zero U.S. cargoes in September while ANEC projections pointed to sizeable October Brazilian shipments, keeping FOB Paranagu\u00e1 under U.S. Gulf and weighing on Chicago spreads.<\/li>\n<li><strong>South American planting signals were mixed, adding two-way risk.<\/strong> Reports flagged early-October dryness in Mato Grosso even as central Brazil sowing accelerated after showers; structurally, China\u2019s soymeal-reduction policy remains a longer-run demand headwind.<\/li>\n<\/ul>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>U.S. grain markets softened as harvest progress, paused government reporting, and global competition\u2014especially from the Black Sea and Brazil\u2014outweighed supportive factors like ethanol demand and soybean crush strength. Wheat December futures nearly -14% YTD, demand flattens &nbsp; Data pause kept U.S. supply perceptions heavy.\u00a0With official Export Sales and Crop Progress paused due to the U.S. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9768","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9768","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9768"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9768\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9769,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9768\/revisions\/9769"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9768"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9768"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9768"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}