{"id":9807,"date":"2025-11-21T17:50:18","date_gmt":"2025-11-21T22:50:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/?p=9807"},"modified":"2025-11-26T17:56:25","modified_gmt":"2025-11-26T22:56:25","slug":"wti-rbob-natgas-capped-by-supply-and-soft-demand","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wti-rbob-natgas-capped-by-supply-and-soft-demand\/","title":{"rendered":"Energy Weekly | WTI, RBOB &#038; NatGas Capped by Supply and Soft Demand"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>WTI, RBOB, and Henry Hub stayed range-bound as OPEC+ signals, ample inventories, soft demand, strong production, and reduced geopolitical risk dominated; LNG exports and refinery runs partly offset bearish balances.<\/p>\n<h2><span data-olk-copy-source=\"MessageBody\">Crude Oil<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><em>IEA\u2019s expectations for 2026 supply send WTI lower<\/em><\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-9808\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-26-175224.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"755\" height=\"416\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-26-175224.png 755w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-26-175224-300x165.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-26-175224-18x10.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 755px) 100vw, 755px\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>OPEC+ nudges output higher before signaling a pause; comfortable barrels persist, keeping WTI rallies short-lived.<\/li>\n<li>Macro outlook softens: IEA projects a deeper 2026 surplus as EIA lifts U.S. output\u2014oversupply narrative limits upside.<\/li>\n<li>EIA reports crude draw, but gasoline and distillate builds with flat product supplied. Headline tightness masked softer end-use demand.<\/li>\n<li>Red Sea threat cools as Houthis signal a halt to maritime attacks, trimming freight\/risk premia, but the security backdrop remains fragile.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><span data-olk-copy-source=\"MessageBody\">Gasoline<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><em>Gasoline futures somewhat recovered but softer demand risk remains<\/em><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-9809\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-26-175406.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"762\" height=\"436\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-26-175406.png 762w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-26-175406-300x172.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-26-175406-18x10.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 762px) 100vw, 762px\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Stocks flipped from a small draw to a solid build, and RBOB gains faded as inventories rose (\u22120.9 mb, then +2.3 mb; finished down, blending components up).<\/li>\n<li>Implied demand cooled\u00a0nearly 500 kb\/d w\/w to slightly above 8.5 mb\/d\u2014soft end-use pulled cracks lower.<\/li>\n<li>Refinery runs steadied near 90% while gasoline output slipped\u2014more crude in, less mogas out.<\/li>\n<li>Global refining outages and Russia-related disruption talk buoyed product risk premia, but U.S. balances dominated.<\/li>\n<li>EIA outlook tilted bearish for 2026 fuel prices and U.S. supply, while forward expectations capped front-month rallies.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><span data-olk-copy-source=\"MessageBody\">Natural Gas<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><em>Natural gas prices soar as export demand outpaces a strong build-up\u00a0\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-9810\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-26-175522.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"766\" height=\"429\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-26-175522.png 766w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-26-175522-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-26-175522-18x10.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 766px) 100vw, 766px\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Storage cushion swelled\u2014net injections topped norms, lifting inventories close to 3,960 Bcf (+5% vs 5-yr), pressuring the front month.<\/li>\n<li>Supply stayed stubbornly strong. U.S. output neared a record ~117 Bcf\/d with gas rigs roughly steady, keeping a bearish backdrop intact.<\/li>\n<li>Exports cushioned the downside. 34 U.S. LNG cargoes departed (broad terminal slate), keeping feedgas demand robust.<\/li>\n<li>Weather\/demand has been mixed. National HDDs ran below normal, but a Northeast cold snap and an Algonquin OFO sparked regional cash spikes.<\/li>\n<li>Global signals leaned soft as TTF eased on the week and the EIA projected end-winter U.S. stocks above the 5-year average, capping rallies.<\/li>\n<\/ul>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>WTI, RBOB, and Henry Hub stayed range-bound as OPEC+ signals, ample inventories, soft demand, strong production, and reduced geopolitical risk dominated; LNG exports and refinery runs partly offset bearish balances. Crude Oil IEA\u2019s expectations for 2026 supply send WTI lower OPEC+ nudges output higher before signaling a pause; comfortable barrels persist, keeping WTI rallies short-lived. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9807","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9807","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9807"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9807\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9811,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9807\/revisions\/9811"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9807"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9807"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9807"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}