{"id":9816,"date":"2025-12-05T13:09:05","date_gmt":"2025-12-05T18:09:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/?p=9816"},"modified":"2025-12-22T13:23:50","modified_gmt":"2025-12-22T18:23:50","slug":"carbon-market-news-roundup-17","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/carbon-market-news-roundup-17\/","title":{"rendered":"Carbon Market News Roundup"},"content":{"rendered":"

Welcome to the December edition of the Carbon Market News Roundup, our monthly briefing on the evolving landscape of global carbon markets and climate-related regulation.<\/strong>\u00a0<\/span>Our previous issues, along with the rest of our commentaries, may be read<\/em>\u00a0here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

In this month\u2019s issue, we track a series of pivotal regulatory shifts across the EU\u2019s climate policy architecture that are reshaping compliance obligations for industry, shipping, and global supply chains. The EU ETS enters a defining phase ahead of 2026, with rising allowance-price expectations, benchmark revisions, expanded sectoral coverage, and new proposals to stabilize the forthcoming ETS2. In parallel, maritime decarbonization faces both momentum and uncertainty: EU MRV data reveal record-high shipping emissions even as Brussels moves to scale sustainable fuel production and refine methane-slip reporting, while the IMO\u2019s postponement of its Net-Zero Framework deepens reliance on regional systems such as the EU ETS and FuelEU Maritime.<\/p>\n

This edition also examines accelerating policy developments under the EU\u2019s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, including leaked benchmark values, implementation reforms, verification rules, and the growing urgency expressed by global business groups for clarity ahead of the definitive phase in January 2026. Closing out the issue, we assess major trends in the voluntary carbon market and present this month\u2019s Country-Specific CBAM Exposure analysis, focusing on Malaysia\u2019s concentrated vulnerabilities as CBAM reshapes global industrial competitiveness.<\/p>\n

EU ETS – Regulations Updates<\/span><\/h5>\n

Carbon price in the EU ETS to hit \u20ac126\/t by 2030<\/a><\/p>\n

Andrii Glushchenko,\u00a0GMK Center<\/p>\n

2025 Carbon Market Report: EU ETS lowers power sector emissions and expands to maritime transport<\/a><\/p>\n

European Commission<\/p>\n

Commission proposes targeted adjustments to the Market Stability Reserve Decision to support a smoother start for ETS2<\/a><\/p>\n

European Commission<\/p>\n

EU-UK relations: Council greenlights negotiations on agri-food deal and linking emissions trading systems<\/a><\/p>\n

Council of the EU<\/p>\n

Forecasts for the EU carbon market suggest continued upward momentum in allowance prices as key regulatory changes take effect.\u00a0A consensus survey cited by GMK Center places EUAs at an average of \u20ac126 per ton by 2030, reflecting expectations of tightening supply as free allocations decline and CBAM enters its definitive phase.\u00a0Analysts widely anticipate higher prices beginning in 2026, when benchmark revisions and sector-specific allocation reductions will intensify demand for allowances. At the same time, structural market mechanisms such as the Market Stability Reserve may play a greater role in absorbing surpluses. The latest Carbon Market Report from the European Commission shows how the EU ETS continues to deliver emissions reductions in the power sector, which fell by nearly 11% in 2024, while maintaining high compliance levels across both industry and aviation.\u00a0The inclusion of maritime transport in 2024 proceeded smoothly, with companies surrendering more than 99% of required allowances and revenues reaching \u20ac38.8 billion.<\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n

Alongside these developments, policymakers are fine-tuning ETS governance to ensure stability during expansion. The European Commission has proposed targeted adjustments to the Market Stability Reserve ahead of the launch of ETS2, adding a top-up mechanism for price spikes, extending the validity of reserve allowances beyond 2030, and creating buffers for early intervention. These changes are intended to support a smoother start for the new system, which will cover emissions from road transport and buildings beginning later in the decade. Broader regulatory coordination is also advancing, with the Council authorizing negotiations to link the EU and UK ETS. A linked system would align sectoral coverage, reduce carbon-leakage risks, and potentially enable mutual CBAM exemptions.<\/p>\n

Maritime & Shipping Updates<\/span><\/h2>\n

EU shipping emissions last year highest since official recording began<\/a><\/p>\n

Transport & Environment<\/p>\n

EU moves to scale up production of sustainable maritime fuels as global race\u00a0heats up<\/a><\/p>\n

Naida Hakirevic Prevljak,\u00a0Offshore Energy<\/p>\n

EU guideline for reporting and verifying actual methane slip for FuelEU and EU MRV\/ETS<\/a><\/p>\n

DNV<\/p>\n

What the delay of the IMO’s Net-Zero Framework means for maritime decarbonization<\/a><\/p>\n

Levi McAllister,\u00a0Reuters<\/p>\n

Newly released EU MRV data show that shipping emissions in the EU reached their highest level since reporting began in 2018, despite a decline in seaborne trade.\u00a0A 13% increase in emissions was largely driven by container vessels sailing longer routes and operating at higher speeds, amplifying fuel use and carbon output. The findings show the sensitivity of shipping emissions to operational factors and reinforce calls to strengthen the EU ETS, which has already achieved 99% compliance in its first year. Industry analysts argue that the continued expansion of the system to smaller vessels will be key to ensuring that polluters face consistent carbon costs. Alongside pricing measures, the European Commission is advancing the Sustainable Transport Investment Plan to scale domestic production of renewable and low-carbon fuels.\u00a0The initiative aims to mobilize at least \u20ac2.9 billion by 2027 and unlock up to \u20ac100 billion in sustainable fuel investments needed to meet FuelEU Maritime and aviation targets by 2035, while reducing dependence on imported fossil fuels and strengthening Europe\u2019s industrial competitiveness.<\/p>\n

Momentum on maritime decarbonization also includes new technical and regulatory guidance.\u00a0A recently published EU guideline for verifying methane slip under FuelEU Maritime and the EU MRV\/ETS introduces procedures that allow operators to apply actual methane slip values.\u00a0Meanwhile, global regulatory uncertainty deepened following the IMO\u2019s decision to delay its Net-Zero Framework by one year, leaving shipowners without a clear timeline for global carbon pricing or mandatory GHG-intensity standards. The postponement risks slowing investment in alternative fuels and infrastructure, increases exposure to ESG and disclosure risks, and heightens the likelihood of fragmented regional regimes as the EU, UK, and others press ahead with their own pricing systems. Maritime stakeholders are encouraged to use this interim period to strengthen emissions monitoring, scenario planning, contractual provisions, and fuel strategy development to stay aligned with long-term decarbonization expectations despite the absence of immediate global regulation.<\/p>\n

EU CBAM Updates<\/h2>\n

Leaked CBAM provisional benchmarks largely in line with market expectations for aluminium and steel<\/a><\/p>\n

Laura Roberts,\u00a0Fastmarkets<\/p>\n

EU CBAM: What\u2019s new and what\u2019s next?<\/a><\/p>\n

CMC<\/p>\n

EU to publish CBAM benchmarks after ETS revision in 2026<\/a><\/p>\n

Eurometal<\/p>\n

Business calls for urgent clarity on EU\u2019s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism ahead of January implementation<\/a><\/p>\n

International Chamber of Commerse<\/p>\n

New details emerging from Brussels are beginning to clarify what CBAM\u2019s definitive phase will look like, even as significant uncertainties remain for importers.\u00a0A leaked European Commission draft outlining provisional benchmarks for aluminium and steel largely aligns with market expectations and provides insight into how embedded emissions will be calculated from 2026 onward.\u00a0The precursor-based approach may reward companies able to provide verified emissions data, while still pending default values are expected to carry higher compliance costs. The annex also addresses long-standing concerns around scrap leakage by creating a distinct framework for secondary aluminium, though industry participants note that loopholes remain without inclusion of post-consumer scrap. These developments come as the Commission advances broader CBAM rulemaking, including the Omnibus Regulation\u2019s new de minimis threshold, delayed certificate-purchase timeline, offshore production exemptions, and simplified emissions calculations.\u00a0Businesses now face a tightening implementation schedule in which authorised declarants, updated methodologies, and technical requirements must all be in place by January 2026, with further legislative proposals expected to expand CBAM\u2019s scope and refine rules on deductions, accreditation, and downstream products.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Additional clarity is beginning to emerge around embedded-emission benchmarks and verification requirements, with the Commission confirming that final CBAM benchmarks will only be published after the 2026 ETS benchmark revision. Default values for emissions and carbon prices will be released in late 2025, alongside updated methodologies and documentation requirements. Verification procedures for non-EU producers are expected to closely mirror EU ETS standards, including annual monitoring, risk-based assessments, and mandatory correction of non-material issues.\u00a0Meanwhile, scope expansion has been pushed to 2027, delaying decisions on additional industrial goods, the steel-scrap loophole, and indirect-emissions pricing.\u00a0As these rules progress, business groups are calling for urgent clarity: the International Chamber of Commerce warns that the absence of final guidance risks obstructing compliance planning for 2026 and creating unnecessary trade friction. In a letter to EU leaders, the ICC stressed the need for workable methodologies, consistent default values, predictable appeals mechanisms, and proportionate treatment for SMEs and developing economies.<\/p>\n

Voluntary Market & Emerging Compliance Markets<\/span><\/h2>\n

After years in the doldrums, new reforms may unlock growth for carbon finance<\/a><\/p>\n

Ben Payton,\u00a0Reuters<\/p>\n

What can India\u2019s bilateral carbon credit deals learn from the centralised global carbon market?<\/a><\/p>\n

Vaibhav Chaturvedi,\u00a0Carbon Copy<\/p>\n

Latest U.N. analysis shows climate pledges cutting emissions by 12%<\/a><\/p>\n

Reuters<\/p>\n

In charts: ten years since the Paris climate accord<\/a><\/p>\n

Aditi Bhandari and Jana Tauschinski,\u00a0Financial Times<\/p>\n

Recent developments in the voluntary carbon market reflect both the promise of new integrity reforms and the challenges these reforms create for project viability.\u00a0Following years of reputational scandals and methodological weaknesses, initiatives such as the Integrity Council and updated crediting methodologies aim to restore market confidence, yet they are also reducing credit issuance significantly and exposing the financial fragility of many legacy project types.\u00a0Forest-based \u201cavoidance\u201d schemes, in particular, are issuing up to 90% fewer credits per hectare under new rules, and developers warn that excessive conservativeness could render numerous projects unviable.\u00a0Despite these reforms, carbon credits remain mispriced, averaging just $5.30 per tonne in early 2025. As voluntary demand struggles to rebound, regulated markets continue expanding, with 40 countries now operating carbon-pricing schemes and airlines preparing for large-scale credit purchases under CORSIA by 2027.\u00a0In parallel, India\u2019s first bilateral carbon-credit agreement under Article 6.2, signed with Japan, indicates growing momentum in international market cooperation.\u00a0The deal comes ahead of COP30 and shows the need to embed strong integrity safeguards in new bilateral projects, drawing lessons from Article 6.4\u2019s centralised rules on declining baselines, additionality requirements, and conservative adjustment mechanisms.<\/p>\n

Yet these emerging cooperation frameworks also raise important questions about how carbon-credit transfers interact with national climate targets. India\u2019s NDC could be jeopardized if credits generated domestically are sold internationally without proper accounting safeguards, prompting new \u201cauthorisation\u201d rules that govern whether reductions contribute to India\u2019s own mitigation goals or are transferred abroad. These mechanisms are intended to reduce uncertainty for investors and ensure consistency between Article 6.2 bilateral deals and the integrity provisions developed under Article 6.4. Meanwhile, the broader global emissions context remains sobering.\u00a0A new UNFCCC analysis indicates that current climate pledges would reduce emissions only 12% by 2035 relative to 2019 levels which is far short of the 60% cut required to limit warming to 1.5\u00b0C.\u00a0Ten years after the Paris Agreement, global temperatures continue to rise, fossil-fuel emissions have not yet begun to fall, and renewable energy growth, while significant, has not fully displaced fossil generation.<\/p>\n

CBAM Exposure Section \u2013 Malaysia<\/h2>\n

Malaysia faces a growing but concentrated exposure to the EU\u2019s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).\u00a0The EU accounts for about 7.9% of Malaysia\u2019s total trade, making it the country\u2019s fourth-largest export destination, with exports to Europe expanding by roughly 22% in recent years.\u00a0While CBAM-covered goods represent only around 6.7% of Malaysia\u2019s exports to the EU, the risk is disproportionately clustered in a few energy-intensive sectors, especially iron and steel, which make up nearly three-quarters of Malaysia\u2019s CBAM-related exports. Analysts warn that if Malaysian firms fail to meet CBAM-grade reporting standards, as much as 57% of Malaysia\u2019s exports to the EU could be affected, showing the urgency of strengthening emissions monitoring systems and compliance readiness ahead of CBAM\u2019s full implementation in 2026.\u00a0Malaysia does not yet operate a national carbon-pricing mechanism, but the government has announced plans to introduce a carbon tax by 2026 for the iron, steel, and energy sectors, with revenues earmarked for decarbonization technologies. In parallel, authorities are considering a domestic ETS to cover sectors outside the tax, while the Bursa Carbon Exchange (BCX) is emerging as a tool to meet future compliance obligations. Exporters have been required to report emissions since October 2023, with larger firms developing MRV frameworks, though implementation remains uneven among SMEs.<\/p>\n

Sectoral data show how Malaysia\u2019s CBAM exposure is both significant and unevenly distributed.\u00a0In 2024, the EU imported US$248 million in iron and steel and nearly US$592 million in aluminum from Malaysia, alongside smaller volumes of fertilizers and cement.\u00a0Iron and steel remain the most vulnerable due to their emissions intensity and reliance on fossil-based energy, while aluminum exporters face rising electricity-related carbon costs. Fertilizer and cement exports account for only a marginal share of Malaysia\u2019s EU-bound trade, but even small carbon-cost differentials could erode margins in competitive markets.\u00a0As CBAM phases in, Malaysian exporters may face tightening cost pressures, potentially affecting output, profitability, and trade flows, particularly in industrial sectors central to Malaysia\u2019s manufacturing economy.\u00a0Strengthening MRV systems, accelerating decarbonization investments, and operationalizing domestic carbon-pricing instruments will be key to reducing exposure and maintaining competitiveness in the EU market.<\/p>\n

Recommended Reads<\/span><\/h2>\n

US Economy Wins From Green Exit, Unless the World Follows Suit<\/a><\/p>\n

Emma Court,\u00a0Bloomberg<\/p>\n

The world is likely to exceed a key global warming target soon. Now what?<\/a><\/p>\n

United Nations Environment Programme<\/p>\n

West Balkan power producers should adopt carbon pricing as EU tax looms, campaigners say<\/a><\/p>\n

Reuters<\/p>\n

Global Climate Policy Is Broken | Foreign Affairs<\/a><\/p>\n

Jessica F. Green, Foreign Affairs<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Welcome to the December edition of the Carbon Market News Roundup, our monthly briefing on the evolving landscape of global carbon markets and climate-related regulation.\u00a0Our previous issues, along with the rest of our commentaries, may be read\u00a0here. In this month\u2019s issue, we track a series of pivotal regulatory shifts across the EU\u2019s climate policy architecture […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9816","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9816","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9816"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9816\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9820,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9816\/revisions\/9820"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9816"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9816"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9816"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}