{"id":9931,"date":"2026-04-02T14:18:31","date_gmt":"2026-04-02T18:18:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/?p=9931"},"modified":"2026-04-16T14:27:54","modified_gmt":"2026-04-16T18:27:54","slug":"bi-weekly-commodity-news-roundup-7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/bi-weekly-commodity-news-roundup-7\/","title":{"rendered":"Bi-Weekly Commodity News Roundup"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dr. Ken Rietz<\/span><\/p>\n

Twice a month, we\u2019ll be sharing a curated newsletter featuring concise summaries of key articles in the agriculture and energy commodities markets\u2014along with direct links to the full pieces\u2014 as well as related charts from the Fundamental Analytics platform. Our goal is to give you a quick, insightful overview of the latest developments and hopefully spark your interest to dive deeper into the full articles.<\/p>\n

The topics covered this month in our agricultural summaries are the following:<\/p>\n

\u2022\u00a0Soybeans: How valid is the soybean rally?<\/p>\n

\u2022\u00a0Corn: History of corn agriculture and Hi-Bred<\/p>\n

\u2022\u00a0Wheat: Will the boost in wheat last until harvest?<\/p>\n

\u2022\u00a0Wild card: Differences in how soybeans and corn could go forward<\/p>\n

\u2022\u00a0Bonus: Five strange things farms grow<\/p>\n

The fun bonus is new but will not be repeated in further issues. It was just too strange not to include here. Let\u2019s begin.<\/p>\n

Soybeans<\/h5>\n

<\/p>\n

Figure 1: Front-month CBOT soybean futures<\/em><\/p>\n

Is the Soybean Rally Real or Just Another Tease?<\/a><\/p>\n

Bruce Blythe,\u00a0Farm Progress<\/em><\/p>\n

The recent soybean rally has some supportive factors, but overall remains questionable and potentially short-lived. History offers mixed signals: past years with strong supplies and comfortable stocks often saw spring price peaks fade into expiration, with recent examples showing declines of around 9% from spring highs. Current fundamentals also raise caution, as U.S. ending stocks for 2025\u201326 are projected to rise to about 350 million bushels\u2014a six-year high\u2014while Brazil is expected to produce a record crop, both of which point to ample global supply and limited upside.<\/p>\n

At the same time, the rally isn\u2019t entirely baseless. Potential increases in biofuels mandates and intermittent signals of Chinese buying interest could provide price support, and weather remains a major wildcard that could quickly shift the outlook. Still, producers should be cautious about assuming the rally will persist, noting that recent patterns imply the best pricing opportunities for\u00a0old-crop soybeans may occur in the spring rather than later in the marketing year.<\/p>\n

Wheat<\/h5>\n

<\/p>\n

Figure 2: Front-month CBOT wheat futures<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Iran War Lifts Wheat, but Will the Rally Hold Through Harvest?<\/a><\/p>\n

Bruce Blythe,\u00a0Farm Progress<\/em><\/p>\n

Wheat prices have been pushed higher by escalating conflict in the Middle East, as U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have injected uncertainty into global markets and extended a winter rally. July wheat futures rose roughly 15% from winter lows to around $6 per bushel, supported not only by geopolitical tensions but also by fundamental factors such as ongoing drought in the Southern Plains and tightening U.S. supplies. USDA projections show planted acreage at a six-year low and production expected to fall more than 6%, giving farmers some legitimate reasons for cautious optimism heading into harvest.<\/p>\n

However, there are questions about whether the rally can last, noting that similar early-year price spikes in recent years have tended to fade by the time contracts expire. Over the past two seasons, wheat futures declined an average of about 21% from their spring peaks to expiration, suggesting a pattern of rallies losing momentum as harvest approaches. While current conditions provide support, since history favors caution, farmers may want to take advantage of pricing opportunities rather than assume the rally will persist through harvest.<\/p>\n

Corn<\/h5>\n

<\/p>\n

Figure 3: Front-month CBOT corn futures<\/em><\/p>\n

How the Year 1926 Revolutionized Agriculture<\/a><\/p>\n

Rod Swoboda,\u00a0Farm Progress<\/p>\n

The year 1926 marked a turning point in agriculture largely because it coincided with the founding of what became Pioneer Hi-Bred, led by Henry A. Wallace, which helped launch the widespread development and commercialization of hybrid corn. At the time, U.S. corn yields had been stagnant for decades\u2014roughly 20\u201330 bushels per acre since the Civil War\u2014but hybridization offered a breakthrough that dramatically increased productivity. This innovation wasn\u2019t just scientific; it also required convincing farmers to shift from saving seed to purchasing improved hybrids, ultimately transforming how agriculture operated.<\/p>\n

The year 1926 also has a special place within a broader transformation of agriculture, where science, business, and technology began converging to modernize farming. Hybrid seeds became one of the most important advances of the 20th century, comparable to mechanization and chemical inputs, and helped drive a rapid increase in yields and efficiency in the decades that followed. By the 1940s, most U.S. farmers had adopted hybrid corn, illustrating how developments that began around 1926 reshaped the structure, productivity, and long-term trajectory of American agriculture.<\/p>\n

Wild Card<\/strong><\/p>\n

Are Grains Trying Trade Their Own Fundamentals or War Headlines?<\/a><\/p>\n

Michelle Rook,\u00a0AgWeb<\/em><\/p>\n

Soybean futures continued to push higher, driven largely by optimism surrounding renewed Chinese demand and expectations for stronger U.S. biofuel policy, particularly Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs). Traders are increasingly factoring in Chinese demand along with greater domestic demand for soybean oil tied to renewable diesel, both of which have provided upward momentum. These demand-side factors have helped soybeans extend gains despite ongoing uncertainty in broader commodity and geopolitical markets.<\/p>\n

In contrast, corn markets are beginning to \u201cdivorce\u201d themselves from outside influences such as crude oil price swings and geopolitical tensions tied to war headlines. Analysts suggest corn is shifting back toward trading more on its own supply-and-demand fundamentals rather than following energy markets or global conflict narratives. The broader takeaway is that grain markets are becoming more differentiated: soybeans are benefiting from specific demand catalysts, while corn lacks similar bullish drivers and may face a more subdued or independent price trajectory.<\/p>\n

5 Odd Ag Industries<\/a><\/p>\n

Diego Flammini,\u00a0Farms.com<\/em><\/p>\n

There is no summary for this one. Each of the pages contains a picture, and 5 or 6 sentences about the farm. The whole article can be read in less than 3 minutes. Let this article cheer you up; your problems are not as bad as they might be.<\/p>\n

Trading Implications<\/h5>\n

The Iran war seems to be the overwhelming factor for agriculture because the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz cripples not only the supply of gasoline, but also\u00a0<\/span>the supply of fertilizer.<\/a>\u00a0The cycles of destruction on both sides keep increasing, sending agricultural costs higher. Until things settle down, prices will keep going up. Investors need to adjust to that reality and trade accordingly.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dr. Ken Rietz Twice a month, we\u2019ll be sharing a curated newsletter featuring concise summaries of key articles in the agriculture and energy commodities markets\u2014along with direct links to the full pieces\u2014 as well as related charts from the Fundamental Analytics platform. Our goal is to give you a quick, insightful overview of the latest […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9931","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9931","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9931"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9931\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9933,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9931\/revisions\/9933"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9931"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9931"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fundamentalanalytics.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9931"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}