Energy Prices Struggle – Fundamental Analytics

WTI Prices Remain Below $65 as Demand Weakens

WTI crude oil futures settled at $63 per barrel but still posted a weekly loss of over 1%, amid persistent oversupply concerns and uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China trade talks.
Several OPEC+ members are expected to propose a second consecutive month of faster output hikes in June, while Kazakhstan, a key ally, stated it cannot cut output at its major oil fields and will prioritize national interests when setting production levels.
Investors remain cautious amid economic headwinds from tariffs and growing uncertainty over U.S. monetary policy, both of which are expected to weigh on the broader economy and potentially reduce oil demand.
Demand has plummeted by more than 8% since the start of the year.

Oversupply Weighs on Gasoline Futures

Gasoline futures in the U.S. fell below $2.10 per ton, halting the rebound that peaked at $2.35 in early April, amid expectations of increased feedstock supply for major refiners and growing downside risks to demand from the top energy consumer.
In addition to boosting supply to a key consumer market, the move risks further tensions among OPEC members, as producers struggle to keep output below their production quotas despite the group’s unexpected plans to increase output at three times the previously expected pace in May.
Meanwhile, concerns over the escalating trade war with the United States led Chinese fuel imports to slump by 29% month-over-month, pushing domestic gasoline supply to a 10-month high.

Natural Gas Prices Plummeted to Multi-Month Low

U.S. natural gas futures fell below the $3.00/MMBtu mark, the lowest level in five months, tracking declines in gas prices across major hubs in Europe and Asia amid ample supply and uncertain demand due to macroeconomic headwinds.
New data showed that domestic gas production in the Lower 48 states rose to 106.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfpd) so far in April, a record high.
Additionally, macroeconomic headwinds in China stemming from the ongoing trade war with the U.S. drove LNG imports to plunge by 20% from the previous month, while lower coal prices prompted India to reduce LNG consumption.