US Exports Struggle, Futures Slide

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Agricultural futures tumbled on fundamental factors, as oversupply concerns weighed on markets and demand for U.S. agricultural exports continued to fade.

Wheat

CBOT Wheat Pressured by Weak U.S. Exports and Expanding Black-Sea/Australian Supplies
  • U.S. exporter reports for the week of May 16–22 showed net cancellations of 128.8 Kt of old-crop wheat, leaving total 2024/25 commitments 14% behind last year and highlighting persistently weak overseas demand during the review window.
  • USDA’s May 27 Crop Progress rated winter wheat at 50% good/excellent (down 2 points w/w) and launched spring wheat at just 45% G/E—the second-worst season start in four decades.
  • In the week of May 24, two major Russian consultancies raised their 2025/26 harvest and export forecasts to 83 MMT and 43 MMT, respectively. Meanwhile, a May 27 Reuters report cited a looming 5–8 MMT Australian surplus amid collapsing Chinese demand. These twin supply shocks kept FOB Black Sea wheat $20–30/t below U.S. Gulf offers and pressured CBOT spreads.
  • A May 28 Indian government update confirmed a bumper procurement (~32 MMT), sufficient to meet domestic needs and maintain the wheat import ban—removing a potential demand catalyst for U.S. or Black Sea wheat.
Corn

CBOT Corn Stalled by Fast U.S. Planting, Sluggish Exports, and Record Brazilian Supply
  • USDA’s Crop Progress reports showed corn planting at 78% complete as of May 19 and 87% by May 25. Early condition ratings came in at a solid 68% good/excellent, pointing to ample prospective supply and limiting CBOT upside.
  • The May 30 Weekly Export Sales report logged just 916,700 tonnes in net old-crop bookings for the week ending May 22—23% below the prior week and well under the four-week average—highlighting ongoing weak foreign demand for U.S. corn.
  • On May 24, CONAB raised its 2024/25 corn output forecast by 2.1 MMT to a record 126.8 MMT, while Rabobank cited mostly favorable safrinha conditions. The result: FOB Santos corn remained below U.S. Gulf offers, pressuring Chicago spreads.
  • EIA data for the four weeks ending May 23 showed production averaging 1.03 million barrels per day—historically robust—but record seasonal stocks signaled ample supply, muting price impacts and keeping futures pinned near $4.50/bushel heading into month-end.
Soybeans

CBOT Soybeans Slide on Rapid U.S. Planting, Weak Exports, and Record Brazilian Crop
  • As of May 26, USDA reported 76% of the soybean crop planted and 50% emerged—both roughly a week ahead of the 5-year average—reducing the perceived need for a weather premium during the period.
  • FAS weekly data for the period ending May 22 showed net soybean sales of just 146 Kt, down 53% from the previous week and marking a marketing-year low, as China booked virtually no new purchases.
  • CONAB raised its 2024/25 soybean harvest estimate to a record 167.9 MMT, while May exports were projected near 14.5 MMT. Both figures kept FOB Paranaguá offers well below U.S. Gulf levels and capped any CBOT recovery.
  • NOPA’s April crush hit an all-time April high at 190.2 million bushels, but July futures still slid about 1.7% during the holiday-shortened week ending May 30, as robust domestic demand was outweighed by soft exports and burdensome global supply.