Commodity Market Update April 4, 2019

Our weekly commentaries and updates will remain free until April 22, 2019. Effective April 22, 2019, a subscription will be required in order to receive them. Anyone who signs up before April 30, 2019 will receive a yearly subscription at the discounted rate of $99/yr. Of course, clients of Fundamental Analytics and BlackSummit Financial Group will continue receiving our weekly content for free.

We would be happy to discuss this commentary with you and provide additional market insights. Feel free to call us at 312-348-7518 or email us at joel.fingerman@fundamentalanalytics.com

April 04, 2019 | by Joel Fingerman

Energy

Since March 6, 2019, front-month crude oil prices have increased more than $6, from $56.22 to $62.46 per barrel. Chart 1 of the forward curves for those two dates also shows the contango coming out of the market to a primarily backwardated market. As of March 6, the contango was over two dollars from the April contract at $56.22 to the December contract at $58.61 (red line).

As of April 3, the contango was only nine cents from the May contract at $62.46 to the July contract at $62.55; after that the forward curve is backwardated. Backwardation supports rising prices, and, in turn, rising prices generally increase backwardation. The forward curves are indicating higher prices.

Chart 1

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The Fundamental Analytics Team

Commodity Market Update (Portuguese Translation) April 12, 2019

Nossos comentários e atualizações semanais permanecerão gratuitos até 22 de abril de 2019. A partir de 22 de abril de 2019, será necessária uma assinatura para recebê-los. Qualquer pessoa que se inscreva antes de 30 de abril de 2019 receberá uma assinatura anual com uma taxa de desconto de US $ 99 / ano. É claro que os clientes da Fundamental Analytics e do BlackSummit Financial Group continuarão recebendo nosso conteúdo semanal gratuitamente.

Ficaríamos felizes em discutir esse comentário com você e fornecer informações adicionais sobre o mercado. Sinta-se livre para nos ligar em 312-348-7518 ou envie um email para nós joel.fingerman@fundamentalanalytics.com

12 de abril 2019 | por Joel Fingerman

Greetings!

Granos

El informe de abril del USDA WASDE se publicó el martes y los datos fueron generalmente bajistas a los precios de los productos básicos. Las existencias finales de maíz de los EE. UU. Se registraron en 2.035 millones de bushels, cifra mayor que la estimación promedio de 1.991 millones de bushels (gráfico 1, 2018 bar). Las existencias finales mundiales de maíz se registraron en 314.1 millones de toneladas métricas, un aumento de 308.5 millones de toneladas métricas en el informe de marzo (Gráfico 2, barra 2018).

Las existencias finales de la soja de EE. UU. Fueron de .895 mil millones de bushels, un poco menos que la estimación promedio de .898 mil millones de bushels (gráfico 3, barra 2018). Las existencias finales de la soja en el mundo fueron de 107.36 millones de toneladas métricas, frente a 107.17 millones de toneladas métricas en el informe de marzo (Gráfico 4, barra 2018).

Con la excepción de las existencias finales de maíz de EE. UU., Las existencias finales se mantienen en niveles récord. El mercado cayó con el lanzamiento del informe WASDE, pero terminó el día básicamente sin cambios.

Sin embargo, las inundaciones en el medio oeste y los pronósticos meteorológicos a corto plazo podrían retrasar o impedir la siembra, lo que provocaría un aumento de los precios de los productos básicos.

Gráfico 1

Gráfico 2

Gráfico 3

Gráfico 4

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Commodity Market Update April 11, 2019

Our weekly commentaries and updates will remain free until April 22, 2019. Effective April 22, 2019, a subscription will be required in order to receive them. Anyone who signs up before April 30, 2019 will receive a yearly subscription at the discounted rate of $99/yr. Of course, clients of Fundamental Analytics and BlackSummit Financial Group will continue receiving our weekly content for free.

We would be happy to discuss this commentary with you and provide additional market insights. Feel free to call us at 312-348-7518 or email us at joel.fingerman@fundamentalanalytics.com

April 11, 2019 | by Joel Fingerman

Grains

The April USDA WASDE report was released Tuesday and the data were generally bearish to commodity prices. US corn ending stocks were reported at 2.035 billion bushels, greater than the average estimate of 1.991 billion bushels (Chart 1, 2018 bar). World corn ending stocks were reported at 314.1 million metric tons, up from 308.5 million metric tons in the March report (Chart 2, 2018 bar).

US soybeans ending stocks were at .895 billion bushels, slightly less than the average estimate at .898 billion bushels (Chart 3, 2018 bar). World soybeans ending stocks were at 107.36 million metric tons, up from 107.17 million metric tons in the March report (Chart 4, 2018 bar).

With the exception of US corn ending stocks, the ending stocks remain at record levels. The market dropped with the release of the WASDE report, but ended the day basically unchanged.

However, the flooding in the Midwest and near term weather forecasts could delay or prevent planting, causing commodity prices to rise.

Chart 1

Chart 2

Chart 3

Chart 4

For more insights and analysis or to find out about our free trial offer, go to www.fundamentalanalytics.com
Follow us on Twitter @fundanalytics or on LinkedIn

Regards,
The Fundamental Analytics Team

Fundamental Analytics Monthly Newsletter April 2019

Our weekly commentaries and updates will remain free until April 22, 2019. Effective April 22, 2019, a subscription will be required in order to receive them. Anyone who signs up before April 30, 2019 will receive a yearly subscription at the discounted rate of $99/yr. Of course, clients of Fundamental Analytics and BlackSummit Financial Group will continue receiving our weekly content for free.

We would be happy to discuss this commentary with you and provide additional market insights. Feel free to call us at +1 859-687-2748 or email us at abram.finley@fundamentalanalytics.com

Monthly Newsletter: April 2019
By Abe Finley and Joel Fingerman

Dear Joel:

Fundamentals

The DOE reported Total Crude Oil Inventories increased by 7.2 million barrels to 449.5 million barrels for the week ending March 29, 2019, while the expectations average was for a 0.4 million barrel draw. The DOE report was a bearish surprise for crude prices, and with the release of the report prices dropped 40 cents but then recovered. Since the beginning of 2019, crude stocks have been range bound between about 440 million barrels and 450 million barrels, so the bearish surprise did not have a large effect on prices. Prices continue to ratchet up to the $62 level.

Chart 1

Soybean accumulated exports saw a sharp rise in March (Chart 2, black line); however, accumulated exports remain substantially lower than the previous three years (Chart 2, yellow, red, purple, and blue lines). The low level of accumulated soybean exports can be explained, in part, by the sharp reduction in soybean exports to China in 2018 as a consequence of the US-China trade war. Soybean prices are likely to rise to levels seen in previous years once a resolution has been brought to the trade war.

Chart 2

Platform Potential

The commodity market research platform offered by Fundamental Analytics is intuitive and easy to use. The year-on-year default visualizations of certain pricing and fundamental data along with the ability to easily create spreads charts offer a superb tool for analyzing relevant data. Research by our team in March exemplifies how combined analysis of pricing, spreads and fundamental data can offer meaningful market insights.

Note: The content below reflect updates and commentaries that we send regularly to our distribution lists. Because some time has now passed since its original release, the content below should not be regarded as up-to-date market commentary. If you wish to receive this type of analysis in a timely fashion, please let us know. In addition, you can conduct your own research by subscribing to our research platform. For more information give us a call at (859) 687-2748 or visit www.fundamentalanalytics.com.

Commentary originally from March

Energy

The calendar spread of NYMEX May Crude – NYMEX June Crude for the 2019 contracts has decreased from positive 60 cents last May (Chart 1, black line) to negative 39 cents as of March 5. These calendar spreads of consecutive months are often called “front-to-back” spreads. The value of the front-to-back spreads often is inversely correlated to crude stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma (Chart 2), the delivery point of the NYMEX crude oil contracts. As stocks increase at Cushing, there tends to be downward pressure on the front-to-back spreads. Cushing stocks have been increasing since last August, from 20 million barrels to 47.5 million barrels as of March 1 (Chart 2, red and black lines), and correspondingly the May-June Crude spread has been decreasing. See the Chart 3 scatterplot of this inverse relationship. Should the Cushing stocks continue to increase, as we expect, this will continue to pressure the front-to-back crude calendar spreads.

Summary of market commentary last month

Fundamental Analytics offers timely weekly commentary tied to reporting from the DOE, as well as weekly reports on crude oil and natural gas. We also offer a weekly commodity market update highlighting developments in agricultural and energy markets. If you are interested in receiving any or all of these updates, please let us know. Below are some summaries of our Commodity Market Updates last month.

Note: The content below reflects updates and commentaries that we send regularly to our distribution lists. Because some time has now passed since its original release, the content below should not be regarded as up-to-date market commentary. If you wish to receive this type of analysis in a timely fashion, please let us know. In addition, you can conduct your own research by subscribing to our research platform. For more information please give us a call at (859) 687-2748 or visit www.fundamentalanalytics.com.

March 21

Prior to 2014, crude oil produced in the US could not be exported per federal law. When the law was changed in mid-2014, US crude exports increased to about 0.5 million barrels per day. Starting in mid-2017 with increasing domestic shale production of crude oil, crude exports increased dramatically to 3.39 million barrels per day. With record crude oil production for supply, crude stocks can be at lower levels. With strong exports and lower levels of crude stocks, US WTI crude oil prices will be supported and can be expected to stay above $60 a barrel.

April 4

Since March 6, 2019, front-month crude oil prices have increased more than $6, from $56.22 to $62.46 per barrel. The forward curves for those two dates also show the contango coming out of the market to a primarily backwardated market. As of March 6, the contango was over two dollars from the April contract at $56.22 to the December contract at $58.61. As of April 3, the contango was only nine cents from the May contract at $62.46 to the July contract at $62.55; after that, the forward curve was backwardated. Backwardation supports rising prices, and, in turn, rising prices generally increase backwardation. The forward curves are indicating higher prices.

What to Watch in Upcoming Weeks

Below are a few things to watch in early/mid-April of 2019. These factors are likely to impact energy and agricultural markets.

● Expectations regarding acreage of US corn and soybeans to be planted in 2019

● Volume of Chinese soybean imports

● Geopolitical tensions, such as the fighting between the Libyan government and rebel forces.

● Natural gas prices moving lower as the injection season arrives.

● Crack spreads reflect seasonal factors at the end of Q1 with a substantial gain in the gasoline refining spread and a loss in the heating oil processing spread.

Commodity Market Update April 23, 2019

We would be happy to discuss this commentary with you and provide additional market insights. Feel free to call us at 312-348-7518 or email us at joel.fingerman@fundamentalanalytics.com

April 23, 2019 | by Joel Fingerman

Dear Joel:

Energy

The end of waivers on imports of Iranian oil announced by the US caused crude oil prices to jump more than $2 a barrel.

The Trump administration announced on Monday that it will not renew waivers granted last year to buyers of Iranian crude oil. With a May 1 deadline, major Iranian oil importers like China, India, and South Korean may be forced to find other sources of imports. There is fear that Saudi Arabia and other OPEC exporters will not be able to quickly replace the lost supplies, especially the oil cargoes booked for May delivery.

Evidently, there was some advance notice about the impending announcement, as NYMEX WTI Crude Oil prices ramped up in after-hours trading as shown in Chart 1. Beginning at 5:30 pm on Sunday, April 21, crude prices rallied over $1.50. The rally continued through Monday and Tuesday.

Brent Crude Oil, the European counterpart to NYMEX WTI Crude Oil, increased even greater than WTI, as Brent is more of an international benchmark than WTI. The Brent-WTI crude spread increased from $7 a barrel to $8 a barrel (Chart 2, black line). So while WTI Crude Oil price increased by over $2 a barrel, Brent Crude Oil price increased by over $3 a barrel.

Chart 1

Chart 2

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Follow us on Twitter @fundanalytics or on LinkedIn

Regards,
The Fundamental Analytics Team

Commodity Market Update (Arabic Translation) May 10, 2019

منصة التحليلات الأساسية

 يمكنك التسجيل على موقعنا على الانترنت او الاتصال بأحد الزملاء للحصول على نسخة تجريبية مجانية

سنقوم بتوفير سعر تمهيدي خاص لأولئك الذين سيقومون بالتسجيل بين 15 مارس و15 مايو

 مميزات منصة التحليل الأساسي

سهلة الاستخدام قائمة على الويب وتوفر إمكانية التحكم في الاختيارات عن طريق القائمة

تاريخ واسع للبيانات

قدرات متفوقة للرسوم البيانية

أسعار تنافسية

سوق السلع 10 مايو 2019 | بقلم جويل فينغرمان

الطاقة

أهمية واردات البنزين

بدأ موسم القيادة الصيفي، وزادت مصافي تكرير النفط من إنتاج مزيج البنزين الصيفي

يبلغ إجمالي الطلب الضمني على البنزين حاليًا 11.0 مليون برميل يوميًا، أو ما يعادل 462.0 مليون جالون يوميًا (الرسم البياني 1). يمكن أن يرتفع الطلب بسهولة ليصل إلى 11.5 مليون برميل يوميًا خلال فترة ذروة القيادة في شهر يوليو

تعتبر واردات البنزين مصدرًا هامًا لإمداد السوق بالبنزين في الولايات المتحدة، خاصة خلال موسم القيادة الصيفي. بينما تعمل مصافي التكرير على زيادة الإنتاج البالغ متوسطه حاليًا 10.0 مليون برميل يوميًا تقريبا، فإن إجمالي إنتاج البنزين في مصافي التكرير لا يمكن أن يلبي إجمالي الطلب على البنزين (الرسم 2). وبالتالي، فإن الولايات المتحدة تستورد البنزين لتعويض النقص في الإنتاج المحلي

على الرغم من أن واردات النفط الخام غالباً يتم تناقشها في وسائل الإعلام، إلا أن اعتماد الولايات المتحدة على واردات البنزين لا يتم نشره على نطاق واسع. ولقد زادت واردات البنزين بالفعل من حوالي 500,000 برميل يوميًا في شهر مارس إلى ما يقرب من مليون برميل يوميًا في الوقت الحالي

الرسم البياني 1

الرسم البياني 2

Commodity Market Update

Grains
The April USDA WASDE report was released Tuesday and the data were generally bearish to
commodity prices. US corn ending stocks were reported at 2.035 billion bushels, greater than the average estimate of 1.991 billion bushels (Chart 1, 2018 bar). World corn ending stocks were reported at 314.1 million metric tons, up from 308.5 million metric tons in the March report (Chart 2, 2018 bar).

US soybeans ending stocks were at .895 billion bushels, slightly less than the average estimate at .898 billion bushels (Chart 3, 2018 bar). World soybeans ending stocks were at 107.36 million metric tons, up from 107.17 million metric tons in the March report (Chart 4, 2018 bar).

With the exception of US corn ending stocks, the ending stocks remain at record levels. The
market dropped with the release of the WASDE report, but ended the day basically unchanged. However, the flooding in the Midwest and near term weather forecasts could delay or prevent planting, causing commodity prices to rise.

Chart 1

Chart 2

Commodities Market Update April 11, 2019

Our weekly commentaries and updates will remain free until April 22, 2019. Effective April 22, 2019, a subscription will be required in order to receive them. Anyone who signs up before April 30, 2019 will receive a yearly subscription at the discounted rate of $99/yr. Of course, clients of Fundamental Analytics and BlackSummit Financial Group will continue receiving our weekly content for free.
We would be happy to discuss this commentary with you and provide additional market insights. Feel free to call us at 312-348-7518 or email us at joel.fingerman@fundamentalanalytics.com
April 11, 2019 | by Joel Fingerman
Dear Joel:
Grains
The April USDA WASDE report was released Tuesday and the data were generally bearish to commodity prices. US corn ending stocks were reported at 2.035 billion bushels, greater than the average estimate of 1.991 billion bushels (Chart 1, 2018 bar). World corn ending stocks were reported at 314.1 million metric tons, up from 308.5 million metric tons in the March report (Chart 2, 2018 bar).
The new Fundamental Analytics platform will launch in March 2019. To see what the FA platform can do for you sign up for a free trial on our website or contact one of associates.
We will be running a special introductory price for those who sign up between March 15th and May 15th.
Benefits of FA:
  • Easy to use, web-based and menu driven platform.
  • Extensive history of data.
  • Superior graphing capabilities
  • Competitively priced.
US soybeans ending stocks were at .895 billion bushels, slightly less than the average estimate at .898 billion bushels (Chart 3, 2018 bar). World soybeans ending stocks were at 107.36 million metric tons, up from 107.17 million metric tons in the March report (Chart 4, 2018 bar).
With the exception of US corn ending stocks, the ending stocks remain at record levels. The market dropped with the release of the WASDE report, but ended the day basically unchanged.
However, the flooding in the Midwest and near term weather forecasts could delay or prevent planting, causing commodity prices to rise.
Chart 1
Chart 2
Chart 3
Chart 4

 

For more insights and analysis or to find out about our free trial offer, go to www.fundamentalanalytics.com
Follow us on Twitter @fundanalytics or on LinkedIn
Regards,
The Fundamental Analytics Team

Commodity Market Update April 4, 2019

Our weekly commentaries and updates will remain free until April 22, 2019. Effective April 22, 2019, a subscription will be required in order to receive them. Anyone who signs up before April 30, 2019, will receive a yearly subscription at the discounted rate of $99/yr. Of course, clients of Fundamental Analytics and BlackSummit Financial Group will continue receiving our weekly content for free.

We would be happy to discuss this commentary with you and provide additional market insights. Feel free to call us at 312-348-7518 or email us at joel.fingerman@fundamentalanalytics.com

 

The new Fundamental Analytics platform will launch in March 2019. To see what the FA platform can do for you sign up for a free trial on our website or contact one of associates.

We will be running a special introductory price for those who sign up between March 15th and May 15th.

Benefits of FA:
Easy to use, web-based and menu driven platform.
Extensive history of data.
Superior graphing capabilities
Competitively priced.

April 04, 2019 | by Joel Fingerman

Dear Joel:

Energy

Since March 6, 2019, front-month crude oil prices have increased more than $6, from $56.22 to $62.46 per barrel. Chart 1 of the forward curves for those two dates also shows the contango coming out of the market to a primarily backwardated market. As of March 6, the contango was over two dollars from the April contract at $56.22 to the December contract at $58.61 (red line).

As of April 3, the contango was only nine cents from the May contract at $62.46 to the July contract at $62.55; after that, the forward curve is backwardated. Backwardation supports rising prices, and, in turn, rising prices generally increase backwardation. The forward curves are indicating higher prices.

Chart 1


For more insights and analysis or to find out about our free trial offer, go to www.fundamentalanalytics.com
Follow us on Twitter @fundanalytics or on LinkedIn

Regards,
The Fundamental Analytics Team

Commodity Market Update, Portuguese Translation March 22, 2019

Nossos comentários e atualizações semanais permanecerão gratuitos até 22 de abril de 2019. A partir de 22 de abril de 2019, será necessária uma assinatura para recebê-los. Qualquer pessoa que se inscreva antes de 30 de abril de 2019 receberá uma assinatura anual com uma taxa de desconto de US $ 99 / ano. É claro que os clientes da Fundamental Analytics e do BlackSummit Financial Group continuarão recebendo nosso conteúdo semanal gratuitamente.

Ficaríamos felizes em discutir esse comentário com você e fornecer informações adicionais sobre o mercado. Sinta-se livre para nos ligar em 312-348-7518 ou envie um email para nós joel.fingerman@fundamentalanalytics.com

Commodity Market Update Portguese Translation March 22, 2019

Energia

Antes de 2014, o petróleo bruto produzido nos EUA, por lei federal, não podia ser exportado.
Quando a lei foi alterada em meados de 2014, as exportações de petróleo dos EUA aumentaram
para cerca de 0,5 milhões de barris por dia. A partir de meados de 2017, com o aumento da
produção nacional de xisto bruto, as exportações de petróleo aumentaram dramaticamente para
3,39 milhões de barris por dia (Gráfico 1, linha preta).

Com uma produção recorde de petróleo bruto sendo ofertada, os estoques de petróleo bruto
podem estar em níveis mais baixos (Gráfico 1, linha vermelha). Com fortes exportações e menores
níveis de estoques de petróleo bruto, os preços do petróleo bruto WTI dos EUA terão apoio e
devem ficar acima de US $ 60 o barril.

Gráfico 1

Para mais insights e analize, descubra mais sobre a oferta de um período de teste gratuito de nossa plataforma de análise no nosso site www.fundamentalanalytics.com Siga-nos no twitter @fundanalytics ou LinkedIn
Atenciosamente,
A Equipe do Fundamental Analytics