Dr. Ken Rietz
Grain futures softened as the August WASDE highlighted ample corn, tighter soybeans, and firmer wheat; healthy U.S. crop ratings, slow loadings, and aggressive Black Sea/Brazil exports outweighed demand and crush strength.
Wheat
December contract hit 1-year low, as exports weaken
- USDA’s August update leaned supportive but not bullish. WASDE trimmed U.S. ending stocks to ~869 million bushels on stronger export prospects and lowered the season-average price, while global ending stocks fell to the lowest level since 2015/16.
- Field data signaled ample near-term flow. Crop Progress showed winter wheat largely wrapped up, and spring-wheat harvest is accelerating with ~49% good/excellent conditions, giving enough supply comfort to cap rallies despite quality chatter.
- Export demand was solid on paper, but shipments lagged. Weekly FAS reports logged ~723K tonnes in new-crop sales – well above recent averages – yet export loadings stayed subdued, tempering futures’ responses.
- Black Sea competitiveness intensified. Russia zeroed its wheat export duty and moved to accelerate shipments after a July lull, keeping FOB offers aggressive and exerting pressure on Chicago spreads.
Corn
Corn futures plummet on revised higher ending stocks
- The August WASDE reset the U.S. supply curve lower. USDA projected a record 16.7 bn bu crop and lifted 2025/26 ending stocks to ~2.1 billion bushel; global corn stocks were also revised higher, keeping price pressure intact.
- Field conditions limited any weather premium. National corn ratings hovered around the low-70s % good/excellent, with pollination largely complete, signaling broadly favorable yield prospects during the period.
- Export demand faltered at the old-crop tail. The latest weekly report showed net sales reductions for the current marketing year for corn, underscoring lackluster overseas pull even as new-crop interest builds.
- Brazilian competition intensified. ANEC’s line-ups pointed to ~8 MMT of August corn exports – well above last year – reinforcing South American dominance in key destinations and weighing on CBOT spreads.
Soybeans
Soybeans revived but China presents diminished demand
- The August WASDE tightened the U.S. balance modestly. USDA cut harvested area while lifting yield, reduced exports, and placed 2025/26 ending stocks near 290 million bushels, a slight drawdown that tempered but didn’t reverse the bearish tone.
- Field conditions stayed broadly favorable. The latest Crop Progress during the period kept U.S. soybeans ~68% good/excellent, limiting weather-risk premia as pod-setting advanced.
- The export pipeline remained soft under China’s headwinds. New-crop commitments hovered near 20-year lows, and Chinese buyers continued to favor South American origin amid unresolved tariff risks, muting board rallies.
- Brazilian flow dominated; domestic crush offset only partially. ANEC projected record-like August shipments (≈8.1–8.8 MMT), reinforcing aggressive FOB offers, while NOPA’s record July crush underpinned meal/oil demand but couldn’t outweigh sluggish exports.