DOE Insights February 26, 2020
Crude Oil Stocks Build, Less than Expectations
The DOE reported Total Crude Oil Inventories increased by 452, 000 barrels to 443.3 million barrels for the week ending February 21, 2020, while the expectations average was for a 2.0 million barrel build.
Total hydrocarbon supplies decreased by 2.1 million barrels to 1,290 million barrels.
Crude Oil Production was unchanged at 13.0 million barrels per day.
Total Crude Imports decreased by 300,000 barrels per day to 6.2 million barrels per day.
Total Crude Exports increased by 930,000 barrels per day to 3.7 million barrels per day.
Total Refinery Crude Runs decreased by 200,000 barrels per day to 16.01 million barrels per day.
This has been a major reversal of the crude oil price gains made in the past two weeks, prices have been under pressure due to growing concerns about the international spread of COVID-19. Physical oil markets have already been affected by weaker demand, but until this point market weakness had been centered mainly on China.
Gasoline Stocks Draw, Greater than Expectations
Total MotorGasoline Inventories decreased by 2.7 million barrels to 256.4 million barrels for the week ending February 21, 2020. The expectations average was for a 2.2 million barrel decrease.
Implied Demand increased by 360,000 barrels per day to 10.6 million barrels per day.
Gasoline Production was up 270,00 barrels per day to 9.80 million barrels per day.
Gasoline stocks have seasonally peaked and demand has returned. But gasoline prices are trading in tandem with crude oil prices.
Distillates Stocks Draw, Greater than Expectations
Total Distillates Stocks decreased by 2.1 million barrels to 138.5 million barrels for the week ending February 21, 2020, while the expectations average was for a 1.7 million barrel draw.
Total Distillates Production was basically unchanged at 4.85 million barrels per day.
Total Distillates Implied Demand increased by 260,000 barrels per day to 5.33 million barrels per day.
Distillate stocks are seasonally drawing, production is down, and demand is up. These are bullish factors supporting prices but HO prices more influenced by crude oil.
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The Fundamental Analytics Team