Increased Exports for Wheat & Soybeans; Corn Recovered from Yearly Low

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March 11, 2024

Wheat and soybean prices reacted to expanded exports, while corn saw increase of net short positions from speculators.

Wheat

Despite increase in wheat exports, the prices of wheat hit three-and-a-half-year low

 

  • Wheat futures hit a three-and-a-half-year low, dropping to around $5.2 per bushel.
  • Algeria’s recent purchase order indicates suppliers are willing to further reduce prices.
  • Russia is projected to export 51 million metric tons of wheat in January, exceeding the previous year’s 47.5 million metric tons.
  • Ukraine’s February grain exports increased by 11.5% to 5.8 million tons, including 2.5 million tons of wheat.
  • Ukraine aims for a 2023 harvest of 81.3 million tons with a 50-million-ton exportable surplus.
  • The USDA noted a slight rise in global wheat production for 2023/24, mainly due to increased outputs in Iraq and Argentina

Corn

Downward trend in corn prices and the increase of net short positions from speculators continue

  • Corn prices finished higher after the report day at $4.39.
  • May futures prices saw a range of 10 ½ cents, mostly in positive territory.
  • USDA made no changes to carryover despite expectations for tighter carryover.
  • USDA raised Argentina’s production by 1 MMT and left Brazil unchanged.
  • There was a surprise 1 MMT increase in export total for Ukraine despite lower production forecasts.

Soybeans

Increased exports for soybeans helped rebound from 3-year-low below $11.3

  • Soybean futures rose above $11.5 per bushel.
  • China’s soybean imports dropped by 8.8% to 13.04 million metric tons in the first two months of the year, hitting the lowest level since 2019.
  • Reduced crushing margins and fewer ship arrivals during Lunar New Year holidays contributed to the decline in imports.
  • Analysts expected this decrease but anticipate a rise in meal usage by feed millers starting April due to cheaper beans.
  • Brazil and Argentina are actively harvesting soybeans, signaling a positive supply outlook.
  • Despite slight adjustments in Brazilian estimates, surplus beans from last season’s record crop are available, with Brazil surpassing the US in sales to China.