Global Grain Market Report: A Detailed Look at Wheat, Corn, and Soybean Markets

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April 23, 2024

Wheat futures decline as USDA reports record-high Russian exports and stable corn prices.

Wheat

Lower US wheat prices help crop remain competitive in foreign markets despite increased global supply
  • Wheat futures decline: Wheat futures fell to under $5.4 per bushel, reaching the lowest price since hitting $5.28 on March 15th, indicating ample supply.
  • USDA WASDE report: April’s report maintained the previous upgrade to Russian wheat output, which is projected to reach nearly 91.5 million tonnes this year.
  • High Russian exports: The available wheat for export in Russia is expected to reach an all-time high of 51 million tonnes, making it the largest in the world.
  • Record-high exports despite disruptions: The decision to maintain expectations of record-high Russian exports countered concerns about potential disruptions to shipments due to local trading issues.
  • Revisions in EU, Moldova, and Pakistan supply: The report also revised wheat supply estimates upward for the EU, Moldova, and Pakistan, contributing to the overall picture of ample global supply.
Corn

Speculators increase short positions supported by robust supply prospects following April WASDE Report
  • Corn futures stable: Chicago corn futures remained steady near $4.3 per bushel.
  • USDA stock adjustments: The USDA adjusted 2023/24 ending corn stock volumes downwards for U.S. supplies due to higher use for ethanol, feed, and residual use, but the cut was less than analysts anticipated.
  • South America estimates: The USDA made minimal changes to its production estimates for South America, diverging from forecasts by CONAB and IPAD, leading agricultural bodies in Brazil and Argentina.
  • Brazil corn output: The USDA held its estimate for Brazil’s corn output at 4.482 billion bushels, contrary to expectations of a reduction to 4.739 billion bushels.
  • Argentina corn production: Despite the drought effect, Argentina’s production was lowered only by 1 million metric tons, which is less than expected.
  • Future focus: Traders will now shift their attention to planting and weather patterns in the U.S., which will influence future corn market movements.
Soybeans

Net US soybean export sales marked three-week high despite futures trading at lowest levels year-over-year
  • Soybean Futures Decline: Soybean futures dropped to $11.6 per bushel, marking their lowest point in over a month due to a persistent global oversupply.
  • Soybean Stocks Increase: The USDA’s quarterly grain stocks report indicated that soybean stocks reached a two-year high of 1.845 billion bushels.
  • Ukrainian Soybean Expansion: Ukrainian farmers are planning to expand their soybean cultivation by 23.5% this year, covering 2.199 million hectares.
  • Ukrainian Export Growth: Ukraine’s soybean exports in 2023/24 are expected to rebound to pre-war levels and set a new record of 3.1 million tons.