EIA Insights December 7, 2018

Natural Gas

Withdrawal Greater Than Expectations

The EIA reported a 63 bcf withdrawal for the week ending November 30, 2018. The withdrawal was at the average for this week of the year and greater than the average of expectations of a 57 bcf withdrawal.        

There was not a significant difference between the average of expectations and the actual withdrawal so there was no dramatic price change with the release of the report. Prices were moving up before the report was released and continued up to as much as 24 cents higher than Thursday’s close. Prices fell back but still closed up about 17 cents by the end of the trading day.             

Prices are range trading, but the range has narrowed from a $4.00 to $5.00 range, to a $4.30 to $4.60 range. That is still significant volatility and we expect it to continue given the low storage level and the changing winter weather. Milder winter weather and relatively small withdrawals could have prices dropping to the $4.00 level. Colder winter weather and relatively large withdrawals could have prices jumping to $5.00 and higher. 

We would be happy to discuss this commentary with you and provide additional market insights. Feel free to call us at 312-348-7518 or email us at joel.fingerman@fundamentalanalytics.com

For further information contact joel.fingerman@fundamentalanalytics.com