Commodity Market Update February 13, 2019

Our weekly commentaries and updates will remain free until April 2019. Effective April 2019, a subscription will be required in order to receive them. Of course, clients of Fundamental Analytics and BlackSummit Financial Group will continue receiving our weekly content for free.
We would be happy to discuss this commentary with you and provide additional market insights. Feel free to call us at 312-348-7518 or email us at joel.fingerman@fundamentalanalytics.com
February 13, 2019 | by Joel Fingerman
Dear Joel:
Grains
Last Friday the USDA issued the February WASDE report. In general, there were no unanticipated data contained in the report and so no major price reaction with the release of the report.
Corn Ending Stocks were 1.735 billion bushels, while expectations were for 1.708 billion bushels (Chart 1, 2018 bar). The Stocks to Use ratio was 11.7% (Chart 2, 2018 bar). While not strongly bullish, the data are supportive of corn prices.
The new Fundamental Analytics platform will launch in March 2019. To see what the FA platform can do for you sign up for a free trial on our website or contact one of associates.
We will be running a special introductory price for those who sign up between March 15th and May 15th.
Benefits of FA:
  • Easy to use, web-based and menu driven platform.
  • Extensive history of data.
  • Superior graphing capabilities
  • Competitively priced.

 

Corn Ending Stocks were 1.735 billion bushels, while expectations were for 1.708 billion bushels (Chart 1, 2018 bar). The Stocks to Use ratio was 11.7% (Chart 2, 2018 bar). While not strongly bullish, the data are supportive of corn prices.
Soybeans Ending Stocks were 910 million bushels, while expectations were for 955 million bushels (Chart 3, 2018 bar). The Stocks to Use ratio was 22.2% (Chart 4, 2018 bar). The data remain bearish to prices with record Ending Stocks and record Stocks to Use ratio.
Chart 1
Chart 2
Chart 3
Chart 4
Energia
Despite colder than normal weather, the March-April natural gas calendar spread is now negative with April futures trading higher than March futures (Chart 5, black line). Traders currently believe natural gas supplies will be sufficient for natural gas demand during February.
The March natural gas futures contract open interest has recently begun a steep decline (Chart 6, black line). Open interest decreasing while prices are dropping is usually an indicator of longs exiting the market. This will put pressure on prices causing the March-April calendar spread to become more negative.
Chart 5
Chart 6
For more insights and analysis or to find out about our free trial offer, go to www.fundamentalanalytics.com
Follow us on Twitter @fundanalytics or on LinkedIn
Regards,
The Fundamental Analytics Team