WTI, RBOB, and Henry Hub stayed range-bound as OPEC+ signals, ample inventories, soft demand, strong production, and reduced geopolitical risk dominated; LNG exports and refinery runs partly offset bearish balances.
Crude Oil
IEA’s expectations for 2026 supply send WTI lower
- OPEC+ nudges output higher before signaling a pause; comfortable barrels persist, keeping WTI rallies short-lived.
- Macro outlook softens: IEA projects a deeper 2026 surplus as EIA lifts U.S. output—oversupply narrative limits upside.
- EIA reports crude draw, but gasoline and distillate builds with flat product supplied. Headline tightness masked softer end-use demand.
- Red Sea threat cools as Houthis signal a halt to maritime attacks, trimming freight/risk premia, but the security backdrop remains fragile.
Gasoline
Gasoline futures somewhat recovered but softer demand risk remains
- Stocks flipped from a small draw to a solid build, and RBOB gains faded as inventories rose (−0.9 mb, then +2.3 mb; finished down, blending components up).
- Implied demand cooled nearly 500 kb/d w/w to slightly above 8.5 mb/d—soft end-use pulled cracks lower.
- Refinery runs steadied near 90% while gasoline output slipped—more crude in, less mogas out.
- Global refining outages and Russia-related disruption talk buoyed product risk premia, but U.S. balances dominated.
- EIA outlook tilted bearish for 2026 fuel prices and U.S. supply, while forward expectations capped front-month rallies.
Natural Gas
Natural gas prices soar as export demand outpaces a strong build-up
- Storage cushion swelled—net injections topped norms, lifting inventories close to 3,960 Bcf (+5% vs 5-yr), pressuring the front month.
- Supply stayed stubbornly strong. U.S. output neared a record ~117 Bcf/d with gas rigs roughly steady, keeping a bearish backdrop intact.
- Exports cushioned the downside. 34 U.S. LNG cargoes departed (broad terminal slate), keeping feedgas demand robust.
- Weather/demand has been mixed. National HDDs ran below normal, but a Northeast cold snap and an Algonquin OFO sparked regional cash spikes.
- Global signals leaned soft as TTF eased on the week and the EIA projected end-winter U.S. stocks above the 5-year average, capping rallies.