Dr. Ken Rietz
This is a selection of energy article summaries, focusing on topics that are a bit off the beaten path, but are worth considering. The topics covered this month are:
- Crude oil: David versus Goliath; Trinidad and Tobago fight for their historic share of Venezuelan oil.
- Natural gas: Why is Chicago’s natural gas price dropping?
- Electricity: Renewables are complicating energy
- Wild card: Wiring a house for electricity without wires.
Oil
Figure 1: Front-month future prices for NYMEX WTI crude oil
Energy Chamber: Venezuelan oil could be viable option
Newsday Reporter
The Energy Chamber of Trinidad and Tobago highlighted that, while current energy discussions have focused heavily on importing natural gas from Venezuela (notably via the prospective Dragon gas field), there is a historical precedent for a significant crude oil trade between the two countries that could become relevant again. In past decades, Trinidad and Tobago imported substantial volumes of Venezuelan crude at times more than half of its total oil imports to support operations at the now-mothballed Point-a-Pierre refinery and for re-export and other processing uses. Over time, this oil trade declined and eventually stopped in 2009 as Trinidad sought other sources and domestic production changed.
Given that Trinidad and Tobago’s domestic oil production has been slipping and the refinery remains closed, the Energy Chamber suggested that a revitalized Venezuelan oil industry could potentially serve as a viable future source of crude if the refinery restarts. This option, rooted in historical ties and past collaboration (when Venezuela’s state oil firm PDVSA was even part of the Chamber), might help meet feedstock needs that local production cannot fulfill on its own.
Natural Gas
Figure 2: Front-month future prices of NYMEX natural gas
Chicago Natural Gas Prices Drifting Lower Despite Single-Digit Temperature Forecast
Josiah Clinedinst, NGI
Despite forecasts showing single-digit temperatures that typically boost demand for heating fuel, Chicago Citygate natural gas spot prices have softened recently rather than climbing. Traders and analysts note that ample regional supply, comfortable storage levels, and flexible pipeline flows have muted what would historically be upward price pressure from colder weather, illustrating that cold forecasts alone aren’t sufficient to sustain stronger prices in the current market environment.
Market participants also point out that broader fundamentals like oversupply and limited localized constraints are outweighing near-term weather drivers in setting price direction at the Chicago hub. In this context, the approaching cold snap may have only a limited impact unless it proves both more severe and prolonged, leaving prices on a downward drift despite the weather outlook that would normally signal tightening conditions.
Energy
Figure 3: Total electric energy produced in the US
This figure applies to both of the following articles.
Granite Geek: Electric power has gotten so complex that even the overseers are scratching their heads
The organization that operates New England’s power grid, ISO-New England, acknowledges that long-term planning has become extremely difficult amid rapid changes in both electricity supply and demand. With growth in renewable generation, electrification of heating and transportation, and surging demand from data centers, the traditional method of forecasting grid needs three years ahead through capacity auctions is no longer working. As a result, ISO-NE has asked federal regulators to allow it to shift to monthly capacity auctions, a move its leaders say would provide greater flexibility to respond to volatile and unpredictable market conditions.
Critics and stakeholders agree that the grid’s evolving complexity is forcing a rethink of long-standing market rules, with some arguing the old system may overpay for unused capacity while others warn that insufficient reserve margins could raise the risk of blackouts in the future. The article explores these tensions and underscores how fundamental changes in technology, demand patterns, and energy policy are leaving even grid operators uncertain about how to ensure reliable power delivery over the long term.
No wires, no plugs, just power through the air: How Finland is experimenting with wireless electricity
Finnish researchers are quietly advancing wireless electricity transmission, a technology that aims to send electrical power through the air without traditional cables, plugs, or connectors. By building on concepts like resonant coupling and magnetic induction, scientists from universities including Aalto and Helsinki have been developing methods that use electromagnetic fields to transfer energy. Early demonstrations have shown that small electronic devices can be powered via these wireless techniques, moving research beyond simple lab prototypes.
Despite progress, experts stress that this technology remains far from replacing conventional elec-trical grids. Wireless power transfer currently works most effectively over short distances and at low power levels, limiting its use to niche applications like charging small gadgets, sensors, or devices in controlled settings. Real-world challenges such as efficiency losses over larger distances, the need for specialized receivers, and long-term consumer acceptance mean that traditional infrastructure will still be needed for high-power distribution for years to come.
Trading Implications
It seems unlikely that the US will allow Trinidad and Tobago to get any crude oil from Venezuela, and even if they do, the amount would not make much difference in the global market. If Chicago’s natural gas prices aren’t going to skyrocket, there might be other places with the same result. That shows that some caution would be prudent in trading natural gas to the long side. The complications in electrical energy projections due to renewables could have serious consequences for European companies. It might be worth pulling back on investments in electrical energy for the EU.