Futures capped: WASDE lifted supplies, Black Sea risk eased, South America stayed large. Soy tempered by veg-oil weakness; wheat demand favored non-U.S. origins; corn supported by stronger exports and ethanol.
Wheat
Average weekly Wheat exports lifted (+30.7% accumulative since 2023) for second consecutive year
- WASDE lifted the ceiling: Global 2025/26 wheat supplies and ending stocks were revised higher on record crops in Canada/Argentina/EU/Australia/Russia, capping front-month rallies.
- Risk premium faded: Ample Black Sea/EU offers and chatter around Ukraine ceasefire talks nudged Chicago to fresh lows despite ongoing war logistics risks.
- MENA demand bifurcated: Algeria accelerated tenders at ~$255–$256 C&F while Egypt’s procurement turmoil kept volumes uneven, shifting business toward non-U.S. origins.
- U.S. balance steady, exports grinding forward: No winterkill concerns, softer dollar aided competitiveness, and commitments reached ~74% of USDA’s export target, which was supportive but not bull-making.
- Data flow still messy: Delayed USDA export-sales releases from the shutdown kept traders headline-driven, reinforcing a sell-the-rally, buy-support range for the front month.
Corn
Corn exports doubled in November, as shipment pace strengthens
- USDA’s December update boosted corn exports and trimmed carryout—front-month found support from a stronger shipment pace.
- South America stayed “big”: CONAB made only minor tweaks to Brazil’s crop, while Argentina’s planting/conditions advanced—competition capped rallies.
- Ukraine flows steadied risk premia: The maritime corridor kept moving near-100 Mt of grain as early-December corn exports accelerated.
- Domestic demand held up: EIA reported record weekly ethanol output, cushioning dips in futures.
- Data fog lingered: USDA’s shutdown-delayed export-sales reports kept trade headline-driven and reliant on inspections.
Soybeans
US soybeans exports plummeted after two strong years as competition squeezes US dominance
- WASDE nudged the balance heavier: Global 2025/26 soy production and ending stocks rose, tempering front-month rallies.
- Brazil’s crop advanced with only a minor trim: Planting neared completion, and Conab shaved output slightly—still a record—while early-December rains eased weather risk.
- China demand supportive but measured: State buyers booked sizable U.S. volumes while reserve auctions rotated stocks, keeping crush running without igniting a sustained bid.
- Veg-oil complex leaned bearish for beans: Cheaper palm pulled offtake from soyoil, and NOPA showed higher U.S. soyoil stocks—pressuring the oil leg and capping the complex.
- Policy/geopolitics reduced near-term risk premia: EU’s deforestation-law delay eased compliance pressure for soy flows, while U.S. export-sales report backlogs kept trading headline-driven.