WTI, RBOB, and Henry Hub Natural Gas stayed range-bound: product builds, resilient U.S. supply, softer demand, and easing risks offset crude draws and LNG strength, while thin holiday trading kept spikes short-lived.
Crude Oil
WTI trades in $55-$60 range as drilling dominates
- U.S. data leaned soft on products: EIA showed a crude draw (-1.3 mb) but gasoline (+4.8 mb) and distillate (+1.7 mb) built with high runs (~95%), muting front-month rallies.
- Supply still heavy despite tweaks: U.S. output hovered near 13.84 mb/d while rigs ticked up; OPEC+ kept Q1 policy steady, and the IEA still flags a 2026 surplus (trimmed, not gone).
- Geopolitical flare-ups added brief risk premia: Kazakhstan’s CPC exports slumped after terminal damage; Iran seized a tanker in Hormuz—creating headline spikes, but limited lasting impact on WTI.
- Thin holiday trade, modest bounce: WTI rebounded from mid-month lows into the high $50s as desks faded API builds and weighed Venezuela/Russia headlines.
Gasoline
Gasoline futures have lost more than -20% since September
- Stocks built even as runs stayed high: Gasoline rose by +4.8 mb; finished gasoline declined, while blending components increased. Refinery utilization held near 94.8%. Front-month futures initially rallied but later eased as supply levels appeared adequate.
- Holiday driving didn’t translate into a boom: AAA flagged record travelers, yet 4-week gasoline supplied ran ~1.1% below y/y, softening cracks.
- Light-ends weakened abroad: Europe’s gasoline cracks slid into year-end, dulling trans-Atlantic pull and weighing on RBOB.
- Freight risk eased: Select CMA CGM transits through Suez signaled tentative Red Sea normalization, trimming logistics premia.
- Supply stayed ample: U.S. gasoline output ~9.6 mb/d with imports near 0.8 mb/d, keeping barrels available despite refinery maintenance chatter.
Natural Gas
Natural gas prices rose as exports boosted storage
- Big withdrawal, still-comfortable stocks: EIA reported a 167 Bcf draw; inventories sat ~1% above the 5-year average—supportive, but not tight enough to unleash a breakout.
- Exports firm after brief hiccup: 33 U.S. LNG cargoes departed, and feedgas stayed robust, though a Freeport LNG trip briefly interrupted flows.
- Supply resilience showed up in basis: Waha’s discount narrowed after pipeline maintenance ended; gas rigs ~127 kept upstream pressure intact.
- Weather mixed the signals: Early cold boosted withdrawals, but late-week South warmth softened res/com demand—muting front-month momentum.
- Global cues leaned soft: TTF hovered <€30/MWh, dulling the Atlantic pull; Russian LNG delays add long-term uncertainty more than near-term support.