Larger U.S. wheat supplies, corn harvest, and Brazilian exports signaled abundance; soybeans remained comfortable with weak Chinese demand; bottlenecks and Black Sea offers pressured competitiveness despite crush strength.
Wheat
Wheat at yearly lows as foreign competition intensifies
- USDA data tilted the U.S. balance heavier. The Small Grains Summary pegged all-wheat production near 1.98 bn bushels, while Grain Stocks showed Sept-1 stocks at 2.12 bn bushels (+6% y/y)—a supply overhang for Dec CBOT.
- Late-September export sales improved, but were not game-changing. Weekly FAS highlights reported ~540K tons of new-crop wheat bookings, up sharply w/w, yet futures reaction was muted amid abundant competitor offers.
- Black-Sea competitiveness persisted. Russia adjusted its floating export duty (first higher, then slightly lower) while consultants kept 2025/26 exports ~43–44 MMT, signaling continued aggressive pricing that pressured Chicago spreads.
- Mixed international signals, steady U.S. fieldwork. France’s crop showed below-average protein even as export ambitions were raised; Ukraine expanded winter-wheat sowing, and U.S. winter-wheat planting accelerated, collectively reinforcing ample non-U.S. supply and capping rallies.
Corn
Oversupply threatens Corn prices
- Heavy U.S. supply tone into harvest. Record-size production projections and a quickening harvest pace kept December CBOT under pressure. Even with a smaller year-over-year carry-in, new-crop volume dominated sentiment.
- Forward sales firmed, led by Mexico. Net new-crop corn bookings hit ~1.9 MMT for the week ended Sept. 18, with additional late-September “flash” sales pushing Mexico’s commitments above 9 MMT. Basis improved, but board gains were limited.
- River logistics tempered Gulf competitiveness. Low Mississippi levels and elevated barge tariffs constrained drafts/tow sizes, lifting CIF costs and muting arbitrage to export—another headwind for sustained December strength.
- Global flows favored rivals amid muted Black Sea corn. Ukraine’s September corn exports were minimal on tight supplies/late harvest, while Brazil’s shippers guided ~7.1–7.6 MMT for September, maintaining aggressive competition into key destinations.
Soybeans
Soybean futures remain close to $10.4 mark
- U.S. balance leans comfortably into harvest. Sept-1 soybean stocks printed 316 million bushels (-8% y/y) while Crop Progress showed harvest starting with broadly steady conditions, keeping a lid on weather premia for Jan ’26.
- New-crop export sales improved, but China stayed light. Weekly FAS tallied roughly 0.7 MMT of 2025/26 bookings led by Egypt/Taiwan/Mexico; low Mississippi River levels kept barge freight firm, tempering Gulf competitiveness.
- Brazil’s pipeline undercut U.S. offers. ANEC projected ~6.75 MMT September soybean exports (with strong Q4 line-ups), reinforcing aggressive FOB Paranaguá values and weighing on Chicago spreads.
- Domestic crush strong, structural demand risk abroad. A record-high August NOPA crush (~189.8 million bushels) supported meal/oil use, yet China’s buyers continued favoring South America, and policy aims to lower soymeal inclusion signal a slower import growth path.